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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (1077)	8/13/2019 9:41:58 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1504

You have a lot of precious metals in there. I know those have paid off nicely recently. Munis have been a great bet too. I don't blame you for being fed up with the situation. This is no longer about fundamentals and it is difficult to even be a swing trader, when what you are trading is every breath the Fed, Trump, and Beijing inhales and exhales. It's all vagaries and whims nowadays. Nothing is trading like it used to and old rules have to be thrown out. In this environment, I only know how to trade the macro and forecast for the longer run. As you know, I'm 100% bonds with about 2 years of cash. Mostly AGG and DBLTX with a little FNSOX. My last two years of returns, since I went to 100% bonds in Summer of 2017, has been astonishing with little to no volatility. Although, I'm happy with my decision to stay out of stocks, I can only believe that when bonds are doing this well, that something wicked this way comes. BTW, I did experiment a few weeks back with a quick trade in and out of IEZ and made a few hundred bucks, but I chickened out of a long position there, even though that sector has been annihilated over the last 5 years. I'll keep that book marked for when the new business cycle begins. Anyway, I am convinced that the Fed will take us back to ZIRP and QE before the new business cycle begins, so the bubbly bonds still have a ways to go in the run up. Still a lot of equity longs that will have to get driven out and into bonds. In addition, you'll know we've seen the whites of their eyes when the Fed restarts QE. That will be when we may start evaluating the time to sell, which will be when the recession is fully recognized and stocks start selling off badly and the Fed reacts to that. Their go to pump scheme will always be QE, when the rate decrease fail to spark life back into the walking dead zombie economy. We're in the 1st inning of the end game now.