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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert w fain who wrote (2882)	1/22/1998 3:06:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6180

[Kurlack] Robt -- I talked to TI's IR department yesterday and got the impression Kurlack was a bit jaundiced as opposed to other analysts. The man I spoke with (can't recall his name, not Max P or Dick G) said TI's other products would more than compensate for any loss in Asia/Pacific. Since I'm not acquainted with Kurlack, I asked a market old-timer about him and was told he's a contrarian indicator. Later -- Pat

To: robert w fain who wrote (2882)	1/23/1998 11:37:00 PM
From: Angela	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

Robert and all -- You wrote -- <<I sometimes wonder about Kurlaks motives or maybe it's his research>> Fortune magazine seems to have quite a few articles featuring Kurlak -- including the one linked below which is rather eye opening. At the end of the article there is a adobe acrobat document showing Intel's stock price in relation to Kurlak and other analyst's actions. From the linked article, I get that Kurlak's actions tend to be extreme (yes we already know that) and that his downgrades can hold a stock down (ditto). About his research methodology, from the article: "Back then his primary way of following semiconductor companies--and it remains his primary method today-- was to try to be slightly ahead of his competitors in tracking the industry's "inventory cycle." When computer companies are worried about a possible shortage of semiconductors, they begin stockpiling chips. But then, as soon as they think supply is going to be plentiful, they begin drawing down that inventory. Kurlak's goal is to figure out--ahead of his competitors--the moment when that supply dynamic changes. Kurlak's calls tend to be big ones because they usually involve not just one or two companies but the entire sector. Sometimes he's even upgraded or downgraded every company he followed." pathfinder.com Focusing on inventory cycles does make TK a bit of a market timer, and does reinforce the idea that he does not look at the bigger picture, i.e. emerging trends. Also, if this article is accurate, TK gives more priority to industry-wide inventory cycles than to a company by company fundamental analysis approach. The article also mentions that he tends to be extreme in his earnings estimates -- big increases or big decreases. He's just an extreme guy all the way around! I guess that means that when he does upgrade TI (which I think will come in 1998) -- you can start planning your beach house again. Happy investing, Angela