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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (150097)	8/16/2019 9:39:18 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217710

the water seems pleasantly warm I had hoped to acquire PAAS by this day, but the market refused my earlier Put Message 32287628 <<PAAS August 16 '19 Put 15 @ 0.58>> let us see if the market grants me any of the others on the wish list <<SIL Sept 20 '19 Put 29 @ 1.25 GDXJ Sept 20 '19 Put 38 @ 1.42 FNV Sept 20 '19 Put 90 @ 3.65>> Re <<Haven't shorted anything in a while.>> ... cannot recommend shorting, not because it might not be a good idea, but that it can be a horrible idea. According to Armstrong, as folks lose confidence in negative-yielding bonds, they must flood the salvaged but comparatively massive funds to somewhere that can take in the massive money, and the somewheres cannot be real estate and alternatives, by definition. gold at that juncture should ... what is the PC term ... joyously explode? nope, that doesn't sound right. Oh, yes, go from lower left to upper right, given that gold is a giffen good investopedia.com ala the more people want they want more, until not Re <<Looks like we are heading to stagflation in USA, the best environment for Gold.>> Yeup, stagflation destroys confidence, pulverises conviction, and obliterates BS Re <<It's a little concerning because once the heart of the decline gets underway, there will be nowhere to hide.>> ... what a great game. Re <<Safe Havens are good when it's early and there is still some indecision. Constructing a portfolio is an Art. The right ingredients makes for a delicious meal. To bad nothing lasts forever, except Change.>> ... truth.

To: Rarebird who wrote (150097)	8/16/2019 10:00:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217710

a reminder of what a reset looks like :0) to catch it w/ a short is not-easy

To: Rarebird who wrote (150097)	8/16/2019 10:35:03 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217710

re the earlier chart On 17 Aug 2019, at 10:21 AM, H wrote: This chart should definitely keep people awake at night. Note that the fear and panic that was so palpable when prices hit these levels for the first time in late 2011 is conspicuously absent at the moment. Imo this makes it more likely that this support level will break. Anyone holding cash balances with European banks should probably think about a "plan B", just in case (one has to think about these things beforehand. It may not come to the worst, but it is better to have a plan and not need it than to have no plan and one day find out one actually needed one). Note in this context that all sorts of scenarios have not only been discussed by the PTB on a theoretical level, but have already played out in practice in test cases such as Greece and Cyprus. Important takeaways from these test cases were: 1. do not for one second believe the assurances of politicians and bureaucrats that your money is "safe". On the contrary, the moment such assurances are publicly made, take your money and run. 2. if conditions are dire enough to convince the PTB that the citizenry has to be subjected to a "haircut", the impending confiscation will be announced out of the blue, with no advance warning (as a rule starting with restrictions on withdrawals). 3. one should not rely on the idea that his cannot happen due to the potential political backlash/fallout - it has already been demonstrated that they won't hesitate when push comes to shove. I believe the potential backlash is considered an acceptable risk based on said test cases - and after all, the BRRD has been introduced specifically to enable the imposition of haircuts. Depositors are last in line, but in a severe crisis that may not matter much.

To: Rarebird who wrote (150097)

8/16/2019 11:15:18 PM

From: Investor2

Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217710

Check out this yield curve.

U.S. TREASURIES	Yield	Change

3-month bill	1.95%	n/a
6-month bill	1.85%	n/a
2-year note	1.48%	+ 3/32
5-year note	1.42%	+ 4/32
10-year note	1.55%	n/a
30-year bond	2.01%	- 14/32

Any thoughts?

Best wishes,

I2