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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (150310)	8/26/2019 12:29:09 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217728

Current combined arms order of battle includes FNV, GDXJ, SIL, in the form of shorted puts, and paper gold and paper silver as perma-but-tradeable second fronts, and close air support cash, and strategic arms physical. Am alerted to watch the RMB (CNY) : USD forex rate, as it crosses 7.15 on way to 7.50, opening the way to 8.30 to the USD of the 1980s - all hell awaits Am also keeping watch on dividend-payers in the HK local tax / withholding-tax-free equity market as perfectly good companies without danger of expiration already yields 4 - 8+ %. A few observations / or inklings ... - trump may well be the chosen and god-sent, and just in the nick of time, if events should turn out that the center NYSE fails to hold this time, quite artificially induced to crater, and waits for officialdom resuscitation just as artificial. Am not picky w/r to how gains to be netted as long as netted. - gold is as pretty as ever, and as you noted, year-end is good for pretty - October should be bad for equity - setting up the possibility for win-win - other observations can wait

To: Rarebird who wrote (150310)	8/26/2019 6:36:12 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217728

Interesting that gold got beaten back by whatever this day, as Potus Trump notes team China called and wants to talk. As far as I am concerned there will always be talks, and no way can there be meaningful result, because neither side is ready to deal, w/ trump unable / willing to hold any deal together and his people not wanting any doable deal, on the one hand, and on the other, team China believing the trade war shall be long, and as prosecuted by the trump team and blessed by trump is fitting in okay w/ the team China agenda for the moment. Re specifically <<The main risk to our call is a back flip by Trump or concessions and deescalation by China, paving the way for a trade deal ahead of the U.S. presidential elections in 2020,” the UBS analysts said.>> I am relatively certain no concessions satisfying to Trump’s team would be offered, and no deescalation would hold, by team China, and Should trump back flip, kiss 2020 goodbye. It is good to have gold in respite for a few hours or days. bloomberg.com UBS Says It’s Staying Long Gold as Price Now Destined for $1,600 Ranjeetha Pakiam The dispute ‘has escalated to a new level,’ bank analysts warn Gold will extend its winning ways as the U.S.-China standoff harms growth, risking a deeper slowdown and inviting more central-bank easing, according to UBS Group AG, which jacked up price forecasts with a prediction the precious metal may hit $1,600 within three months. “The trade war between the U.S. and China has escalated to a new level,” Giovanni Staunovo and Wayne Gordon, analysts at the wealth-management unit, said in a report received on Monday. “Gold has demonstrated its safe-haven qualities and we stay long the metal, a trade we initiated in mid-May.” Gold is proving its worth as a haven this year as the two largest economies trade blows, with a significant escalation on Friday, followed by more hard-line remarks from President Donald Trump over the weekend. The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates last month as risks mounted, and some U.S. policy makers have stepped up their warnings about the outlook in recent days. After its revisions, UBS has a three-month trading range of $1,450 to $1,600 an ounce, plus a six-month forecast of $1,600 and 12-month view of $1,650. Previously, both the half-year and 12-month outlooks were set at $1,500. Futures pared gains in an abrupt move on Monday after earlier rallying as much as 1.8% to $1,565 an ounce, the highest since 2013. The shift was triggered by a comment from Trump that China now wanted to reopen talks. “The main risk to our call is a back flip by Trump or concessions and deescalation by China, paving the way for a trade deal ahead of the U.S. presidential elections in 2020,” the UBS analysts said. (Updates to add comment from report in final paragraph.)