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Pastimes : Football Forum (NFL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas M. who wrote (43481)	8/27/2019 9:21:23 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45639

Hmmm... What am I missing here? Assuming that there are no ties during the regular season, there will be (at the end of the season) a total of 256 wins by the 32 teams in aggregate, and 256 losses by the 32 teams in aggregate, which reflects the fact that there are 256 games played by the 32 teams in aggregate. When I total the wins presented here on the actionnetwork.com, I get a total of 258 games, or an overage of 2 winning games for the season. So that means that there is a bias that would (slightly) favor looking for unders rather than overs. If I were to pick some overs, say New England to win 13 games, Pittsburgh to win 12 games, Philadelphia to win 12 games and so on (pick whatever teams you want), the teams with overs wins in excess of what is presented here have to come (by definition) at the expense of other teams which would now be unders what their own projections are. Correct? I think so... So, if I were picking, I'd look for where the overs teams (say New England, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia) are going to acquire those excess wins (I'd need to look at the full schedule for all involved teams) and then match overs and unders according to the schedules, and wager accordingly. Now for my money, I see several potential unders, and more than just a few overs. Does anyone really see the Jets winning 7.5 games or the Giants winning 6 games? Can the Cardinals win 5 games or the Dolphins 4.5? In looking at all of the teams with a projection of 6.5 games or less, only Tampa Bay might be risky as an under from my perspective. I think I might be more likely to play the unders here. Just my opinion though. I don't have any skin in the game... EK!!!

To: Thomas M. who wrote (43481)	8/27/2019 9:58:27 PM
From: Bill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45639

I like the Jets, Titans and Packers over. And the Patriots. The Dolphins, Panthers and Browns under.

To: Thomas M. who wrote (43481)	9/8/2019 12:37:51 PM
From: Thomas M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45639

I strongly contemplated JAX over 8 wins and DEN over 7 wins because of big QB upgrades. I think Fangio will restore the edge the Broncos defense has been lacking the past few years. But these teams play very tough schedules and neither team established in the preseason that their OL improvements were successful, so I'll pass. I wanted to pick NWE over 11 before the Antonio Brown trade, but since I didn't get the pick in I can't include it. No way is Vegas taking bets on NWE after the trade. PIT and CLE have the same line (9) and identical schedule strength. CLE has an unproven coach, numerous head cases, and a shaky franchise. PIT has a rock solid franchise, proven coach, and no head cases. It doesn't seem right that their lines are the same. ATL - 8.5 - OVER PIT - 9 - OVER PHI - 10 - OVER Tom

To: Thomas M. who wrote (43481)	10/2/2019 7:32:18 PM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 45639

We should've bet it all on the 49ers! Hey #49ers fans take note. Only 8 teams since 2005 have been -21 or more Turnovers in a season. Those 8 teams improved on average by 6.4 wins each! pic.twitter.com/4ZOTN1XhP3 — Ralph Michaels (@CalSportsLV) July 19, 2019 Tom

To: Thomas M. who wrote (43481)

9/10/2020 7:33:23 PM

From: Thomas M.

Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 45639

I'll post some picks on Sunday. I took the liberty of editing one the team names . . .

Tom

actionnetwork.com
vegasinsider.com

2020 NFL Win Totals

Baltimore Ravens	11.5
Kansas City Chiefs	11.5
New Orleans Saints	10.5
San Francisco 49ers	10.5
Dallas Cowboys	10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9.5
Philadelphia Eagles	9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.5
Seattle Seahawks	9.5
Indianapolis Colts	9.5
Green Bay Packers	9
Buffalo Bills	9
Minnesota Vikings	9
New England Patriots	9
Tennessee Titans	9
Los Angeles Rams	8.5
Cleveland Browns	8.5
Chicago Bears	8
LA Chargers	8
Houston Texans	7.5
Atlanta Falcons	7.5
Denver Broncos	7.5
Las Vegas Raiders	7.5
Arizona Cardinals	7.5
Detroit Lions	7
New York Jets	6
Miami Dolphins	6
New York Giants	6
Carolina Panthers	5.5
Cincinnati Bengals	5.5
Washington Redskins	5
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.5