In the meantime,
On 31 Aug 2019, at 9:04 PM, J wrote:
We by this day have the best of both possible states, that of ...
(6-i) 20k - 3M folks demonstrate w/o permission, but peacefully, without police interference - loudest messaging to the officialdom, and best for Hong Kong, important to all sides, and exemplary for the world
(6-v) 3 - 2,000 violent demonstrators show up, w/ no crowds to hide amongst, big problem for them as they get caught by and by over time. Good for Hong Kong rule of law.
Perfect daytime and perfect night time.
Pity the blue-dyed people w/ much to explain.
Now we wait to see the Sunday actions. I need to meet folks at the airport Regal Hotel.
And we wait to see Monday financial market.
On 31 Aug 2019, at 8:57 PM, J wrote:
The surge to 17 trillion Nirp-ness is good news, for it opens up the way to 34 trillion road marker, and arrive at natural / mathematical point of destination - 100% Nirp.
Have just returned from Causeway Bay’s Ding Tai Fung restaurant contiguous to the Regal Hotel. Had mom, wife and the Jack in toll along w/ visitor. Great food, friendly service, and quiet ambiance; as opposed to the usually great food, efficient service, and hubbub atmosphere.
We left in taxi just as black-shirts put up barricades. Taxi driver furiously upset w/ the lawbreakers.
I doubt very much the blue-dye tainted folks doused by police water canon trucks would get served at the restaurant.
Whilst using the washroom ran into would-be rioters putting on their gear. They best pray I am not called to jury duty.
OTOH, the police best pray I am not called on jury duty in any trial against one of their members.
Earlier this morning I had speculated regarding the alleged Beijing turning down HK proposal of withdrawing extradition bill ...
:0) Yes, that is the key question, <<Who to believe?>>
(1) We must figure out the most likely truth for ourselves, and see how it all matters if we are wrong, I am guessing.
(2) I have no doubt that the officialdoms in Beijing is inclined to not-appease the demonstrators, especially as the officialdom must-know that their are many groups and subgroups of demonstrators and that mobs can never be sated. Full stop.
(3) I would be very surprised if (2) is not true, and I would be extremely surprised if anyone else interested in the situation believes otherwise.
(4) Given above (2) and (3), we then evaluate item (1)
(4-i) The Reuter’s narrative is that a 500-folks meeting was called in Shenzhen about Hong Kong, and in which a set of recommendations was put forth by team Hong Kong, which was then rejected by team Beijing, and still making team Hong Kong responsible / accountable / answerable for the consequences
(4-ii) Problem [w/ nareative], that team Beijing only [ever] calls for 500-people meetings when the team already decided what to do, as opposed to seeking consultation on what to do
(4-iii) Meaning [of narrative], team Hong Kong wants to, but is prevented / precluded from doing the ‘right’ thing by team [Beijing]
(4-iv) The news [then] is leaked to the international press to be picked up by the domestic HK press, including the opposition press, by three ‘someones’ in-the-know, trusted, but not named, and never leak-able by the domestic press - [very] convenient
(4-v) Team Beijing loses any which ways, [whether] confirming, keeping silent, or denying the report
(4-vi) Team Beijing in any way [hopefully, by parties unknown] begins to distrust team Hong Kong; and demonstrators on the street is fanned once again.
(4-vii) Inexpensive and easy score for the oppositions.
(5) But [given] team Beijing knows what is true and not true, what would the team do in light of knowledge?
(5-i) Cannot counter against team Hong Kong
(5-ii) Cannot counter w/ “no, we agree to any of the 5 demands, even as the mob on the street has no unified leadership”
(5-iii) Cannot do much of anything except to [revert] playing long-game, and watch developments
(6) Watch & brief - let’s see - several possible scenarios for the weekends and for the October holidays, to make sure the violent minority has no place to hide, efficacy unknown until after weekend:
(6-i) 20k - 3M folks demonstrate w/o permission, but peacefully, without police interference - loudest messaging to the officialdom, and best for Hong Kong, important to all sides, and exemplary for the world
(6-ii) Peaceful demonstrations of any size, w/ police interference, big problems for the officialdom
(6-iii) No demonstrators show up, peaceful or otherwise, big message for officialdom and for the majority, that HK is exemplary bar none, and important to all sides
(6-iv) 20k - 3M folks, w/ any violent component, but no police interference so as to reduce casualties, big message to 20k - 3M, that they are breaking Hong Kong
(6-v) 3 - 2,000 violent demonstrators show up, w/ no crowds to hide amongst, big problem for them as they get caught by and by over time. Good for Hong Kong rule of law.
1, 3, 4 possible, 2 and 5 also possible. Let’s see.
Any which way, the hunt for instigators and inciters full-on. May god have mercy on their soul, for “riot” is a clearly defined British colonial term, and “incitement” is a vague concept left to the judge and jury. Sort it out in court by and by.
(7) An off-duty policeman got stabbed last night. Who did it? Don’t know, and does not matter, except that it was done. Effects - police angry, majority not pleased, officialdom alarmed, and opposition should be frightened but perhaps are not, because they do not fully understand the total situation.
(8) Effect on financial market? Do not know, as the market so far is resilient, and enough people are asking “when to buy?”
(9) I am still waiting for the follow-up to this piece of fake news which I thought at the time to be too obvious to be true, but doesn’t matter the truth, only that the news went out and about bloomberg.com
<<The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies
The attack by Chinese spies reached almost 30 U.S. companies, including Amazon and Apple, by compromising America’s technology supply chain, according to extensive interviews with government and corporate sources.
4 October 2018, 17:00 GMT+8>>
(10) I have other and too many examples, and currently, everything about Huawei in Africa, and much w/r to Chinese students in Australia. War is like this, very misty, my take.
What fun, that we are challenged by such shady colouring to the already challenging but inarguably resilient and overarching macro.
We need de-risking galore, at both the periphery as well as at the very core.
Best, J
On 31 Aug 2019, at 4:19 PM, D wrote:
The Unstoppable Surge in Negative Yields Reaches $17 Trillion
bloomberg.com |
