Very informative thread, which concludes, as other experts have, that the image Trump tweeted was taken by a satellite called USA-224, reportedly operated by the National Reconnaissance Office, perhaps the most secretive of all intel agencies. Some points worth noting...
Shane Harris added,
Cees Bassa @cgbassa
It's not often that I retweet the US president, but he tweeted this image of the Iranian Safir launch failure. The image is very interesting as evidence suggests that it was taken by a US spysatellite on August 29th, 2019. Here's my analysis. twitter.com …
Shane Harris?Verified account @shaneharris 24h24 hours ago
Bassa notes, "Now that this image has been published, with the orbit of the satellite known, will enable some estimates of the resolution of the Keyhole satellites." The US works hard to make sure that info is NOT publicly known. It's a basic reason these images are classified.
When the gov't does declassify images from satellites, if often modifies the image so that it doesn't give away the satellite resolution. That's another indication that the gov't takes seriously keeping these technical details secret.
444
Of course, non-gov't experts know lots about how spy satellites work. They've determined or discerned a lot over the years. But I'm aware of no instance in which the president has, w/out explanation, disclosed an image that reveals so much at once about US spying capabilities.
It is the seemingly capricious nature of this disclosure, maybe more than the disclosure itself, that would concern intelligence officials. If the president did discuss with them the pros/cons of releasing this image, he could say so. He has not.
PS--I mentioned the secrecy of the NRO, which owns the satellite in question. Its mission is to maintain these satellites, and keep the world from knowing what they're capable of doing. People at NRO work very hard to do that.
Replying to @shaneharris @Fahrenthold
#MoscowMitch & #MoscowGOPLawmakers remain silent about the occupant in the white house blatant disregard for the security of US national interest/PPL & his Narcissistic behavior Why? THEY DON'T CARE about US PPL PERIOD! ALL have blood on their hands All r TRAITORS IMPEACH NOW!
Cees Bassa? @cgbassa
It's not often that I retweet the US president, but he tweeted this image of the Iranian Safir launch failure. The image is very interesting as evidence suggests that it was taken by a US spysatellite on August 29th, 2019. Here's my analysis.
The image shows the aftermath of an accident with an Iranian Safir rocket at the El Khomeini Spaceport. From the features of the launch pad, I find that the viewing directions of the camera match that of USA 224, a classified spy satellite.
There are 4 towers around the launch pad. Google Earth shows that the North and South towers are aligned along 192 deg azimuth. The camera azimuth is a further ~4 degrees West. From the elliptical shape of the circular launch pad, the elevation of the camera is around 46 degrees.
This is the path USA 224 followed across the sky from El Khomeini Spaceport on August 29, 2019. At 09:44:20, it passed very close to azimuth 196 deg and elevation 46 deg, matching the camera position. At that time, it was at a distance of 382 km.
Since USA 224 is a classified satellite, orbital elements are not published by CSpOC. Fortunately, amateur satellite observers regularly track it across the sky, allowing its orbit to be determined. At the time of the image, the USA 224 orbit was last determined 2.4 days before.
It is not often that images from US Keyhole spy satellites are published. These satellites have 2.4m mirrors (as large as that of the Hubble telescope), and are believed to produce the sharpest images of the Earth's surface. The actual resolution of the images is kept secret.
Now that this image has been published, with the orbit of the satellite known, will enable some estimates of the resolution of the Keyhole satellites. Four of them are currently in orbit, USA 186, USA 224 , USA 245 and USA 290. See t.co for more info.
My analysis of the USA 224 picture of the Safir launch failure (with python code), is available at t.co.
Many thanks to @nukestrat, @DutchSpace and @trbrtc for pointing out that USA 224 might have taken the image. See also the independent analysis by @Marco_Langbroek at t.co
Google Earth shows that the launch pad is about 60m in diameter, while the launch pad is about 600 pixels wide in the picture. That suggests a resolution of at least 10cm per pixel, as the original image could have had a higher resolution.
This resolution is for a range of 382 km. The perigee of Keyhole satellites like USA 224 is around 260 km, so the theoretical resolution could be a factor 1.5 better.
One open question is whether USA 224 observed the El Khomeini Spaceport to track the Safir launch preparations, or to check the aftermath of the failure? Do we know when the failure happened? It must have been before 09:44UTC...
All it takes is basic math and some knowledge of satellites and their orbits, so someone would've done this analysis even if I hadn't. Note that though the resolution of Keyhole satellites is secret, pretty good estimates have been around for decades.
((blue bedbug meme))? @TheBlueMeme
Replying to @cgbassa
And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why we don’t tweet out top secret satellite images. Just try to imagine the foaming apoplexy from the GOP if Obama had done this. |
