To: Jan Crawley who wrote (31721 ) 1/22/1998 5:13:00 PM From: Jeff Jordan Respond to of 61433
**OT**Also just sold ORCL for a S-T profit. Had planned to hold long term. THURSDAY, JANUARY 22, 1998 How Oracle's Asian Smokescreen Hides Its Real Problems Eric Fleming ZD Inter@ctive Investor It is true Oracle missed analysts' forecasts by $0.03 a share in Q2, forcing it under the microscope as the poster boy of bad Asian news. But Oracle isn't that atypical -- Asia represents about 15% of its sales, a figure that was dusted off again and again as Informix, Sybase and other database competitors reported their earnings. Oracle blamed part of its shortfall on Asia's weakened currencies, and, rather quietly, flat domestic demand for databases. Its shares fell 29%, down $9.44 to $22.94. One by one, analysts from investment banks downgraded the shares and then blamed Asia for Oracle's problems -- and Oracle for the database sector's problems. But behind the Asia smokescreen is Oracle's real troubles. Companies didn't need to upgrade to Oracle8 when Oracle7 worked fine. And companies were reluctant to dump their PC-based systems and go back to the circa 1970s mainframe (now called a server) by adopting CEO Larry Ellison's network PCs (or in 1980s vernacular, the "dumb terminal"). Note: there was no word at press time if "portable storage devices" (in 1970s terminology: punch-cards) were part of the NC set-up. To be sure, the prolonged economic slump in Asia hasn't helped Oracle. But there are a lot of companies with a bigger piece of the pie in Asia -- such as Intel, IBM and Hewlett-Packard -- that are doing just fine because they have their eggs in other global baskets, such as Europe. Over a month later, not much has changed for Oracle. Ellison still touts the network PC and the general sentiment is that Oracle will need at least a few quarters to pull itself from its hole. Its shares closed at $20.25 on Jan. 20 as Asia's stocks rallied on optimism about international relief efforts. The only relief effort Oracle will see could be a friendly takeover bid in the near future -- unless it concentrates on its core business and product lines, none of which relate to Asia.