To: Yaacov who wrote (11699 ) 1/22/1998 5:12:00 PM From: The Phoenix Respond to of 77400
Yaacov, Analysts all have they're own perspectives which vary widely. In the case of SBC, given that they gave no explanation, it's difficult to say whether or not this move makes sense. As for earnings, Cisco's FYQ2 ending this weekend, it's my opinion that SBC has blundered badly - Cisco will not disappoint. Of course this is just my opinion, but it seems to me that if Cisco were going to miss they would've warned. Instead they were talking a pretty upbeat story going into the quiet period. Question. For what reason would they miss? It's been stated at infinitum that Cisco is far less exposed to Asia than other networkers. It was also mentioned multiple times that inventory increases are a result of increased sales via the internet (in order to assure quick delivery). So, where's the bad news? If someone has some tangible reasons why Cisco misses please share it. JRH, Your question about Nortel and Lucent competition is a reasonable one to ask. I think "mindmeld" is correct with his/her assumption that this market will not converge for quite a while. In the meantime there will be a few strong vendors that will continue to dominate, gain market share, and pluck up companies that help them build a robust strategy going forward. Someone made a comment about Cisco being dominant in the networking business (which is true) and that they will defend this turf at all costs (which is true). The trouble with this point of view is it fails to look at how the communications landscape is changing. Convergence of data and voice networks is here. This is good news for vendors since this will likely mean more churn in enterprise and service provider nets. The result will be an increase in revenues for these larger players leading me to believe that analyst's expected slow down in the sector may be over stated. Nonetheless, given these assumptions, this convergence does bring up the issue of traditional data infrastucture providers such as Cisco competing with traditional voice vendors. Cisco, Lucent, Nortel, Alcatel, NEC, etc.. all have a good shot at the converged data/voice space. Likely acquisitions along with way will include Ascend, Bay, Newbridge, Mitel, and many other smaller players. So: if you believe that this churn will continue and that data/voice integration is real, if you believe that there will continue to be increased demand for access to networks (read internet, video to the home, advanced services, etc.) both for business and personal use, then you have to believe that the larger more established communications vendors will continue to see growth for the next 5 to 10 years. Given this each individual needs to make thier own informed descision at to whether this represents a good sector to invest in given their personal investment goals. I for one am a big believer in the networkers! I'm long Cisco no doubt! Gary