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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (62596)	9/27/2019 2:01:20 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78717

NSRGY. I guess people feel it's a business in transition, and/or the stock has "broken out" so there's even more room for the stock to go. Ok, valuing the stock and buying the stock: If the stock got down to 19x, or 18x earnings again, I might buy again. For a very small bet only. There's the dividend and the stock generally trades above 20x. I'd bet on people's knowledge of the company's so many well-known brands such that the company endures and trades again at level it's been before. So that buy price would be under 20x $3.50/sh or $70/sh. (Is $3.50 a decent guess as to what earnings will be? I've no source for info.) Now valuing the stock. No more than 12x earnings. Maybe more likely 10x if that number didn't seem so laughable, i.e. I'm valuing the stock at maybe $35 when it's trading at $108?? It hasn't traded at $35 in ten years. (And also that's when I believe Spekulatius and I were buying.) My reasoning is that NSRGY has not grown revenue; it's typical of other diversified food companies that I've looked at that ARE trading at maybe 12x or less (e.g. Smucker, Kraft Heinz); and it doesn't have a high enough roe or profit margin to justify a buy based on those metrics except maybe somewhere at the $20 to maybe 40 level. I don't see what's so special about NSRGY in comparison to those other food companies or to other companies that do have better metrics to entice me as a buyer anywhere near its current price.