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To: lbs who wrote (9287)1/22/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Captain Jack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
 
lbs-- 1st why hold dead money for ANOTHER 90 days? Dump now, price goes down and buy cheaper later. Take the profit and put it where it will make money. If your portfolio made 30% last year and you held TPRO for 6 months doing nothing it cost 15% to hold it. Even if sold at a loss to be used against future TPRO gains the wash period is only 30 days. TPRO is a negative on our balance sheet weather it is up or down from the purchase price.

So far all we are certain of is they have supplied/given the CDs away--- not much mentioned about any sales yet. AND where are any glowing endorsements from any companies? Not saying it does not work--- firmly believe it does just want to know why we have heard NOTHING.

Agreed!!! YOU MUST be quick both IN and OUT! But there has to be some movement to indicate a direction if there is one.

The story has stopped. Nothing new has been added and nothing expanded upon. Why are they quiet? Are Jenkins and King related?

I am VERY comfortable buying after a gap up if there is reason to believe it will continue. I will always wish investors well with the first 20% and last 20% of movement--- I will be happy with the 60% in the middle.

You played ORCL better than I. I bought at 23--- now must wait to see. A qtr yes and there is no SHORT time frame. Believers that the Y2K effect on TPRO, if any, will last more than 2 - 3 years will be holding an empty bag. ORCL will be around much longer in spite of Larry! I like a dead cat bounce--too bad the ORCL cat splattered. <gg>

John



To: lbs who wrote (9287)1/22/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: Richard S. Schoenstadt  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 31646
 
>>>>The CD did not ship until Nov 15. If companies are given a 60 day trial, then any CD revenue will not show up until the third quarter. <<<

I don't think this is a valid analysis. Why wait the full 60 days. They can use the CD for free to inventory their systems. That's all. Then what? If they decide they may have a problem and need the database to check for compliance why the heck would they wait the full 60 days. They can't use the database until they pay.

Also although the CD didn't ship until Nov. 15, there was considerable build up before that.

In July Tpro sent out a 5,000 mailer to it's customer base alerting them to the planty2k-one product. In September Hagewood claimed they were getting dozens of calls a day from people asking for help.
In November Jenkins said Wonderware was getting one call an hour about year 2k work and that was being referred to Tpro.
Also in November Jenkins said he had 3500 sites on his list as potential prospects.

Now if there had been a demand or need for this product don't you think there would have been a least a small backlog among all those people who wanted the product as soon as it became available.

And it wouldn't take much of a backlog to make an impact on revenues in the 2nd qtr.

If only 200 CD's were ordered at $4,000 per then Tpro should have increased their revenue by $800,000. If you use the $20,000 estimate that Jenkins gave as an average that would be $4 million.

Yet Tpro is predicting only 1 to 1.5 million in yr 2k revenue in the 2nd qtr and if you read the conference call and take into account the news that revenues will be flat qtr. to qtr, it seems obvious to me that most of that revenue is service revenue.

My own opinion is that CD sales are not going that well so far.

On the other hand if you look at the numbers I gave it seems clear to me that Tpro won't need to sell that many to make an impact.

Presumably the product will get better and better with time.
Also as 2000 draws near more and more of the laggards may be panicked into buying.

Maybe there are other explanations for this.
I can think of one but I'll keep it to myself.

But for right now, whatever others think, I am skeptical as to how well the CD is doing.

One last point. Something I read a couple of years ago on the Iomega thread on AOL has stuck with me.
That was one persons opinion that the single most important factor for determining stock price was growing earnings.
Not fundamentals, not pe, not balance sheet but growing earnings.

Now I think it highly likely, although I continually reevaluate this, that Tpro is going to show constant earnings improvements over the next few quarters and if they do so then the stock will do fine regardless of all these other issues.

That plus continued optimistic forecasts for the future.

RS