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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10838)	1/23/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

AV---I am not necessarily exptra bullish on IPEC as I am on CMP in general. While it is true both SFAM and AMAT could be considered the major competitors, IPEC has some really good systems. Technically, (a trip to SEMICON West and brochures) seems to indicate that IPEC might be equal to or better than SFAM. SFAM has an already established market and it will be a challenge for IPEC but fundamentally they have a good product with high throughput and low cost of ownership. I cannot discount the financial comparison you made but I am weighing more heavily what the future will hold in store for them. CMP has not taken off as fast as it was predicted due to the Asian Flu, Tech collapse, conservatism, etal. However, it is becoming much like the YR2000 problem: putting off the inevitable or not reacting fast enough. When CMP orders start kicking in big time, the lead times will stretch out to unacceptable levels causing the limited players in this market to benefit. That means everyone. From a personal perspective (and some reports I have read), I would rank these 3 CMP tool providers in the following order: AMAT:IPEC:SFAM only because AMAT can put a great deal of power behind its systems in the field. Finally, if you look at the news items relative to IPEC, you will see some "arrangements" made with a company or two. I strongly beleive that if there is another round of industry consolidation in the equipment sector, IPEC could be a target for takeover. Possible candidates for taking them over: LRCX or NVLS. It is for this reason, I am more heavily weighted towards IPEC. AMAT's success in CMP will be diluted as it is melded into the rest of this massive company's bottom line. Success here should be more readily visible in price appreciation in both IPEC and SFAM. Andrew