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Non-Tech : The Brazil Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (2001)	10/11/2019 4:18:20 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2508

Let me get the context

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (2001)	10/11/2019 4:23:55 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2508

Didn't find the article or study that was clipped from

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (2001)	10/11/2019 4:37:21 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2508

The Brazilian banks have been making a killing until a few quarters back because the interest rates were high. Now interest rates are low The minutes are from (Brazil's) Copom’s Sept. 17-18 meeting when it cut the benchmark Selic rate by half a percentage point to a fresh record low of 5.50%. and point to go even lower. Brazil central bank keeps door open for further rate cuts, Making money with money (aka fixed income) is no longer possible Brazilian banks do not need a downturn to go lower... Also note in the chart, the Brazilian down turn already happened...

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (2001)	10/11/2019 5:34:56 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By DinoNavarre Respond to of 2508

I asked her if she had a source/link. She sent me this Quant Fail, which I didn't know what it was ARTICLE FROM 2016 !!! “Quantitative failure” refers to the idea that the years of loose monetary policy in the years since the financial crisis has failed to produced the desired economic growth that central banks had hoped for. Most developed countries have little to show for the trillions spent on easing programs expect for massive amounts of debt. Normalization of global monetary policy appears no closer now than it did years ago. Why the threat of 'quantitative failure' has fund managers worried Most developed countries have little to show for the trillions spent on easing programs expect for massive amounts of debt John Shmuel April 12, 2016 6:21 PM EDT Fund managers around the world say that “quantitative failure” has become the biggest worry keeping them up at night. In a survey released Tuesday by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 21 per cent of managers identified the concept as the biggest tail risk to their portfolios at the moment. “Quantitative failure” refers to the idea that the years of loose monetary policy in the years since the financial crisis has failed to produced the desired economic growth that central banks had hoped for. Most developed countries have little to show for the trillions spent on easing programs expect for massive amounts of debt. Normalization of global monetary policy appears no closer now than it did years ago. That fear is being reflected in the markets, where increasingly, weaker monetary policies are no longer being rewarded by investors. In Europe, stocks have been trending downward ever since the European Central Bank expanded its asset purchases last year, while the BofAML survey found that investors are now underweight Japanese stocks for the first time since 2012, despite that country’s ongoing easing measures. Japan facing ‘end-game’ as public debt soars while hiding behind zero interest rates European stocks starting to look ‘frightening’: BofAML Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist at BofAML, said that quantitative failure, essentially a non-issue for investors last year, has now become the biggest fear for managers who must contend with high valuations and the weakest global growth since the 2009 recession. The Bank of America survey lays out the sheer scale of of global central bank intervention in the past eight years. There have been 637 rate cuts by banks since March 2008, the year when U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns collapsed. That has been followed by $12.3 trillion in asset purchases through quantitative easing programs. What began as zero interest rate policy has now been evolving into negative interest rate policy. The ECB, along with other central banks in Europe, have dropped their deposit rates below zero. Japan has also jumped into the negative fray and some 70 per cent of government bonds there now force investors to pay to hold them. But while past easing measures have led investors to increase their risk taking — most notably the U.S. Federal Reserves QE1, QE2 and QE3 programs — the recent lack of response to new quantitative easing announcements suggests the market no longer trusts that looser monetary policy will fix the world’s problems. Even with borrowing costs nearly free in many developed countries, growth remains elusive. The International Monetary Fund downgraded its global growth forecast Tuesday to 3.2 per cent, down 0.2 per cent from a forecast made three months ago. That means global growth is forecast to barely be stronger than last year, when the world’s economy expanded by 3.1 per cent — the slowest level since the recession of 2009. Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, noted that the lack of results from the trillions deployed by central banks has been a concern for investors for some time. But now it seems investors are becoming downright hostile to further easing, whether it be new asset buying or central banks going even deeper into negative territory. “A multiyear period of major policy intervention and ‘financial repression’ is ending with weak economic growth and investors rebelling against QE,” he said in a note to clients. The backlash against central banks means more fund managers are opting to sit in cash. Cash levels this year among managers sit near 15-year highs, hitting 5.4 per cent of holdings in March. Hartnett said that trading is likely to remain range-bound in the near-term as investors shun risk amid the ongoing fears of quantitative failure. business.financialpost.com