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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (62690)	10/11/2019 12:05:45 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	3 Recommendations Recommended By E_K_S Lance Bredvold Truedarkblue Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78985

Hi Paul, Re: Reversion to the Mean.......................... Another pendulum I watch is the Value Line Median Yield for stocks that pay dividends. I have data from 1995 to present and the median value has been 2% yield (average has been 2.06%). It's a fairly narrow band that I'd call "average risk." Above 2.2% generally equates to being a bullish market while 1.8% yield and below equates to a market that is somewhat over-valued and bearish. Right now VL shows 2.2% median yield for their stock universe which is just on the threshold of being bullish. Compared to the current 13 Week Treasury coupon rate (1.84%) VL's stocks are paying very competitively. Here's the histogram: The markets can go up when yields are modestly bearish, but again we need to look at relative yields compared to short term treasuries or money market funds. Best regards, Tom PS: I have data starting in 1982 but not complete thru 1995.