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Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noblesse Oblige who wrote (846)	1/23/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: voyager.ed	Respond to of 3247

N.O. Mr. Buchanan is very shrewd and conservative in financial matters. You could hear the pride in his voice regarding the $ 30 mil cash reserves and no debt. He isn't driving TFS over the cliff, he's building a ton more capacity, and I'm very confident that he knows why. Back in the '80's while with Intel we had a down year and started 3 new buildings, including Chandler 3. One analyst asked Grove why, and I don't think he could understand the question. He couldn't believe that everyone else didn't see the Intel Express coming down the road. The rest is history with INTC. While TFS has a longgg way there to be mentioned with Intel, I see the same plan and thoughts. Figure out what 30% growth x 30% growth x 30% growth etc. is for 5 years, and it equals a big need for more manufacturing and assembly space. The other thing I don't think many people understand from the conference call is design wins. Mr. B doesn't understand that everyone doesn't talk in his technical world and lingo. Design wins equal future business, as a company specs your product in there new/future product. The business flows from design wins. Also clear both yesterday and at last conference call is that TFS is design winning big in the last 6 months - i.e. sole sourcing is a sure sign of this phenom. It's hard not to buy from the proprietary supplier. The only thing I don't agree with you on is TFS stock price in next 12-15 months. Bet you & the oft referred to lovely Mrs. Oblige a dinner at Un Bochio's we're not at 36-54 in 12 months. As soon as this guy gets to 30 it's going to be split 3-2 and then once more as soon as it reaches 30 again. Take that you TFS specialist. We really need liquidity (I know wrong word, but it says it best) and float. 500 shares can't!! move a stock 1/2 to 5/8 point. Signing of and heading home. Here's to a new day tomorrow - today was very trying. regards, Ed

To: Noblesse Oblige who wrote (846)	1/23/1998 12:29:00 AM
From: k.p. chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3247

Haven't found time to do my own eps for 1Q yet, but here are some simple math poped out my head, based on DB's projection of ("at least")30% rev. growth rate this year: 97 yr rev.. =1 98 rev. = 1.30 (30% growth) 1Q 97 rev. = 19% of 97 rev. = 0.19 IF 1Q 98 rev. percentage drop 5 pts to 14% of 98 total rev., then 1Q98 rev.= 0.14 * 1.30 = 0.182, we get a slightly down yr over yr comp in rev. IF 1Q 98 rev. =15% (4 pts drop) of 98 rev., then 1Q re. = 0.15 * 1.30 = 0.195, we will have a slightly UP Q! I am optimistic! If 1Q 98 rev drops 3 percentage points to 16% of 98 total rev., see what we got: 1Q 98 rev. = 0.16 * 1.30 = 0.208! Wow! This would give you an (1Q 98 rev)/(1Q 97 rev.) growth rate of: 0.208/0.19=1.0947368, i.e. 9.47%!!!!!! I hope those smart guys who sold today can calculate!!! Let me end this one with David B's summary(from 3-5's website) "In summary, this company's future has never looked better. With its financial strength, market basket of new products and manufacturing capacity expansion, it should be poised for a 30% compound annual growth rate in its revenues for the next few years, at least, while growing its earnings at an even greater rate. The future looks good. Thank you."