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To: neolib who wrote (420752)10/16/2019 1:08:48 PM
From: cosmicforce  Respond to of 540724
 
That was my point selection after the fact is called confirmation bias.

There is a stock fraud based upon this. Pump and Dump.

Step 1: Choose a random stock but don't mention one of which you want to dump. Call 2x people and tell them alternately that the stock is going up or down next week. They should invest in your "dummy dump" stock.

Step 2: Tell x people you gave correct forecasts how smart you are. Repeat Step 1 and this one (Step 2) for a few iterations (maybe 4) you keep telling your "winners" that you have consistently called the direction of these stocks the last month. Advance to Step 3. Provide them your "real dump candidate" and tell them to invest.

Step 3. Not surprisingly, many people fall for this and the stock actually does go up for a while because of the new investment (where you sell your shares). After the impulse - the stock drops back to its normal price and you begin the process again.



To: neolib who wrote (420752)10/16/2019 3:02:22 PM
From: koan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 540724
 
Ok, so what about all the people who keep saying only Biden can win and Warren can't?

Where is the logic?

<,

You are still ignoring time. Show me anyone who predicted all those House races 12 months in advance.

BTW, who did Betecofer predict would win between Trump and Hillary? Just curious...