Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (13010)	1/23/1998 1:59:00 AM
From: Yakov Lurye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

>>ASML expects 60% of new units to be DUV?>> From previous discussions on this thread, I was under impression that even with reuse of existing i-line equipment, DUV:I-line ratio for new orders will be below 1. I thought it was estimated around .3 for 1997. 60% DUV translates into DUV:I-line ratio of 3:2 for new orders and looks high. If true though, good news for CYMI. Also found in the referenced article: >>By the end of 1997, ASML still had to deliver 158 wafer steppers, from 94 at the end of 1996, while new orders rose to 275 in 1997, from 126 in the previous year.>> (If I read this correctly, ASMLF shipped 94+275-158 = 211 steppers in 1997 and have orders for 157 going into 1998. With stated capacity for 350 units, ASMLF is less than 50% booked for 1998). I'd prorated these data towards overall DUV market, assuming that ASMLF has 25-30% of the DUV market, and that 60% of DUV orders in the backlog as of end of the year is a representative number. Under these assumptions, DUV makers may have accumulated orders for 310-370 DUV machines by the beginning of the year. Their laser inventory on hand is no more than 200 units (about 160 as of 3Q + 130 expected CYMI production 4Q; minus number of DUV steppers produced in 4Q97 the latter thould be at least 90 given 360 yearly production, probably more). If so, CYMI should have received orders for at least 110-170 additional lasers in 4Q. Yakov

To: FJB who wrote (13010)	1/23/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: Mr. Aloha	Respond to of 25960

Thanks for the info. I liked this part... "In 1997, DUV accounted for about 35 percent of deliveries. This year, ASML expects that to rise to 60 percent. The newer DUV technology enables chip manufacturers to produce more circuits per chip at a lower cost. However, the firm said continued Asian problems meant it was unable to give a clear forecast for 1998. Of ASML's 1997 sales, 24 percent were in South Korea and 28 percent in Taiwan. In Taiwan, ASML expected no difficulties but said its South Korean customers were facing increased hardships. Nevertheless, chief executive officer Willem Maris did say ASML would achieve double-digit sales growth." ----------- That's a lot of growth potential for DUV. I expect all the manufactures to report the same type of transition etc.. We'll see what CYMI can do.. If they report flat growth for 1998 because of uncontrollable events with Asia and the currency... I'll load up BIG time at these prices for the next 6-12 months. Cymer will eventually give up market share but the DUV market growth will offset the decrease. Cymer has stated they DO NOT expect price declines because of competition (when it occurs). They feel they're some distance ahead of the competition on the new generation of DUV lasers... Aloha