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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wes who wrote (4554)	1/23/1998 1:17:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Wes - While the demand for semiconductor parts still remains healthy, the capacity to meet this demand is still excessive and will apparently remain so. On what do you base this? Outside of commodity products (in particular, memory stuff), there is no particular evidence of over-capacity. In fact many of the foundries are capacity constrained. And it isn't so easy to switch from DRAM to foundry business. Earlier, when Jay was on here, I asked him what his source was for claiming excess capacity outside of DRAM. Although he was very knowledgeable, he did not have such a source. I would be very interested if you could find some reliable numbers in this regard. However, it seems that the overall capital squeeze throughout the region is having adverse affect on businesses EVERYWHERE in Asia,including Japan which has its own financial difficulties. Hardly. (sorry) Taiwan and Singapore are still going full bore, and are likely to continue to do so unless Japan and/or China follow Korea. In fact many of the Taiwanese companies are the capacity constrained foundries I mentioned earlier. Clark

To: Wes who wrote (4554)	1/23/1998 1:25:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

Wes, overly optimistic company predictions happen all the time. You said >As recently as last summer, Applied Materials was forecasting $10-15 billion in revenues by "sometime early next century". This projection was a vestige of the over-optimistic growth models of before.< Applied gave themselves some leeway by the vague wording. I remember IBM in its heyday predicting they would be a $100B (sales) company in a few years (that must have been in the seventies or early eighties). Of course we're in the late nineties and $100B is a few years off. Extrapolation only works to a point, and it is not easy to know where that point is. GM

To: Wes who wrote (4554)	1/23/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: Pink Minion	Respond to of 10921

Just think about this: at the end of 1995, I remembered that the SIA projected worldwide semiconductor sales of $200 billion for 1996 and sales of $400 billion by 2000. I'm pretty sure it was 300B for the year 2000. I fell for the hype in the summer of 95. I feel this will cause a shortage in two years and provide the same hype for the turn of the century. The turn of the century has got to create some kind of technology hype run. JMHO. Like hearing doomsday post :-) Mr. B

To: Wes who wrote (4554)	1/23/1998 7:17:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

I've been watching this cycle for a long time. Every time the train enters a tunnel, many of the passengers think it's a hole and just a matter of time until it derails completely. Every time it comes out of a tunnel, many think they've seen darkness for the last time. We are in the down period of a cycle. It's going to head back up in the next year or two just the way an exhale is followed by an inhale -- that is, unless there is some deep overall global catastrophe, like a major war or a climactic change, that really kills the economy. I don't think we've bottomed yet, and the currency difficulties in Asia are not yet resolved. The consensus of currency traders (these are only educated guesses) is that the situation will stabilize sometime in April-June, and that most Asian currencies will trade above current levels by the end of the year. I'd speculate that we'll see enough confidence by the end of 1998 to be hearing new semi equipment orders and the semi equipment sector will start climbing in earnest, to levels at least 50% higher than 1997 at some point in 1999 or so. If I had a 14-year-old with a college trust, I'd put his money into a broad range of semi equipment shares, virtually certain that they'd double by the time the money was needed. The world is going to be screaming for semiconductors in a year or two.

To: Wes who wrote (4554)	1/23/1998 10:35:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 10921

RE: "The current slowdown is not a matter of months or quarters, but possibly YEARS!!" My first thought while reading your message was, "Wow, a Long Term Semiconductor Bear! I don't think I've ever seen one before!" Seriously, I believe that just about everyone on SI is long-term bullish on the semi industry. Even those who think we are currently in a bear market and certain to head lower over the next few months seem to be long-term bullish on the semi industry. Your points are interesting. I'll have to think about them for a while. Best wishes, I2

To: Wes who wrote (4554)	1/24/1998 12:13:00 AM
From: nnillionaire	Respond to of 10921

Wes, >The current slowdown is not a matter of months or quarters, but possibly YEARS!!< A well though piece with many good points. Do you see any parallels between the current Asian crisis, and the S&L crisis experienced here in the US in 1989 in terms of the length of time that it will take for the equities markets to regain composure? Good Investing

To: Wes who wrote (4554)	1/24/1998 12:56:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Wes, let me respond. I think that everything right now hinges on what happens in Japan. Indonesia is spiralling out of control, and is on the fast track to economic collapse, but the fate of all of Asia, and ultimate recession in the West, hinges on whether or not the Japanes clean up the mess in their banking sector, and the resolution of that question should come within 4 months. If they do not, then the gloomy picture you forecast coild easily come true. If they do, however, then the picture will brighten considerably, and for one huge reason. I saw a poll yesterday on Asia Business News (I live in Hong Kong) that indicated that something like 98% of executives interviewed believed that the industry that would lead Asia out of its woes would be the high-tech electronics industry. Currently, many of the semi components of firms are buried in huge conglomerates. All of these businesses will face cutbacks in spending. That is true. And the Market, because it is afraid, is predicting that the semi divisions will face the cutbacks in full measure, and there are in fact order pushouts going on right now. The market is reacting out of fear that this will continue. I don't think it will. In light of the above sentiment, the Asian semiconductor manufacturers cannot be left producing DRAM and microprocessors that nobody will want within a year. The Asian governments simply CANNOT let the workhorse industry group decay into obsolesence. Even though Hyundai and Samsung, as conglomnerates, will face credit restrictions and budget cuts, I predict that the semi divisions will get the green light for full upgrade ramp ups, and that the semi industry will begin to see good times again by the end of the second quarter of this year. I would avoid the sector right now, but I think the second half of the year will see the storm clouds blow away....... If the Japanese put THEIR house in order. If not, things look bleak through the the end of the Millenium, and possibly beyond. jess