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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (1757)	1/23/1998 2:48:00 AM
From: Q.	Respond to of 5867

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 22 (Reuters) - PaineWebber analyst Gunnar Miller said he cut his fiscal 1998 and fiscal 1999 estimates on Lam Research Corp to reflect the current lower backlog of orders and weakening near-term outlook. -- On Wednesday, Lam Research, a semiconductor equipment maker, reported earnings of $0.09 a share, in line with Wall Street consensus estimates, and revenues of $292 million. -- Miller said that management's commentary was downbeat and that the next three to four quarters are likely to be tough for revenues. U.S. and Europe look good but Japan is seen as remaining weak for the next six to 12 months. -- LAM also said it believes investments by DRAM chip makers are likely to be limited to enabling process technology, Miller said in a note to clients. -- Miller said he cut his fiscal 1998 estimate to $0.28 a share from $0.83 a share previously and fiscal 1999 estimates to $2.00 a share, from $3.35 previously. -- Lam shares were down 2-3/8 to 22-3/4 in mid-afternoon trade.

To: Clarksterh who wrote (1757)	1/23/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5867

Clark, I re-listened to the CC (masochistic!) ... and I agree, the timing of the GM improvements is vague. According to the Company, with the projected downturn in revenues for fiscal Q3, the absorption of fixed costs may contribute a 1% decline in GM. In their words, this should be more than offset by gains in materials and warranty (product improvements). So my guess is an increase in GM from 38.5% to about 40% for this quarter. The other positives not mentioned earlier: 1) Significant additions to management - especially manufacturing and materials management. 2) 300 mm is on target (this is critical). 3) Mr. Bagley is forecasting a "strong rebound" for revenues in late '98 (early '99). They may even achieve '99 revenue goals (some of this will be driven by 300 mm - one of the main reasons to own semi-cap-equip companies) The etch discussion (as I understood it) involved the future evolution of etch products. Management sounded like they had a good handle on the future direction and they thought their products where well positioned. I am not qualified to comment further. Many institutional investors will probably wait until there is evidence of 1) GM improvements (LRCX is a turnaround) and/or 2) market conditions improve. Your July/Aug time frame sounds right! Regards, Bill P.S. I'm looking forward to AMAT's comments.