To: Buck who wrote (6337 ) 1/23/1998 2:17:00 PM From: David Respond to of 26039
Ruminations on the conference call and the Holy Grail . . . . Aside from the enjoyment of hearing Fowler dis NRID (and he did it well), the next best thing were the comments on bio-ID and internet projects. IDX is not having a hardware or software problem, but instead is extending its plans with strategic partners (certainly Oracle and probably Microsoft/Netscape) to overcome "infrastructure" and "budget" issues. Nor did IDX have real R&D expenses to invent things -- they already exist. They are using the money to adapt exist inventions to various uses, i.e., engineering costs. There's a lot of information coded in there. If you are going to take over the keyboard world with a fingerscan ID device, ideally you want it already on the keyboard. But everyone already has a keyboard that works. (I.e., "infrastructure"). They don't want to buy a new one or buy a particularly expensive stand-alone device (for "budget" reasons). They also have an existing software-driven network environment ("infrastructure") and as Oracle is finding out, they don't necessarily want to replace that environment with Oracle 8 ("budget"). Not to mention, not quite-there-yet smartcard scanners ("budget" and "infrastructure"). So, you have a stand alone product at a rather high price (Touchlans are at least $500 today) and the keyboard system has not really arrived off the production line. So, what is going on in the minds of the corporate biometric planners? They have a couple of pieces of the coming bio-ID network system in place -- including IDX privacy-friendly algorithm, good scanners, Oracle software integration for databases, smart card technology -- but not others, including smartcards themselves and accompanying hardware, or adequate fingerscanning keyboards, They know that Internet access may be about to explode; they see prices starting to drop on all the pieces of the puzzle. In terms of a year or two from now, they are shooting from a moving platform (their own improving engineering and production costs) to a rapidly, and somewhat unpredictably, moving target -- the Internet market. They have to solve an equation with at least two major variables, and the biometric companies, in particular, have little room for error. It's either miss and hope to recover from the effort, or hit and win BIG BIG BIG. Intranets will be a bit easier, since they are less of a moving target. I doubt anyone but IDX can take the Internet shot, either on a technological or financial basis. But even IDX can miss by misjudging the market timing or direction, and IDX needs a less costly set of tools. Is that what the "engineering" expense line is aiming at? It's not clear to me whether any competitor has the technology or resources to take a real shot at the intranets, as opposed to nibbles. Another conference call subject: The Indonesian currency has dropped 85% against the dollar. I believe that bank project will die, although life support has not yet been pulled. David PS -- Buck, very few people in the government would have their job at risk based on Clinton's problems. It has nothing to do with my work.