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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: edward miller who wrote (9380)	1/23/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Erwin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

On the Contrary, Contrarian Ed, On the contrary I would like to address your contrarian point of view. You wrote: "Several years ago, after the price of gold had dropped for years, I noticed that gold contracts going out in time were at lower prices than the near prices. Just like you have noted today with oil, I had never seen that before. I don't have the exact figures at my fingers but gold was near $300. What happened next? Gold rallied to over $400 and has taken years to come back to $300. The point is that perhaps the traders are as bearish now as they will ever get. If true, this means a bottom is near." Sometimes when I express my opinion I am taken the wrong way. I think it is because I am not overly verbose when I should be. Anyway, I wrote about the price of oil futures being less in March and April than they are in February and I thought that meant bad news for oil related equities in the near term. That is what I said and what I meant. My definition for near-term is the next three months. I am bullish on the oil service sector equities but not in the near term. It looks as though near-term these stocks will stay around current levels. I think long-term oil futures on the commodity market are a very attractive gamble because these prices are not going to stay where they are and are not going to go down much further. Unfortunately, I never had the cast iron garbonzo's to trade commodity futures. To overcome the price depression of oil service equities we need: 1. A rumor that oil production will be curbed (a meeting between Saudi and Venezuela, a OPEC meeting that includes Saudi or a whack-O like Saddam to get everyone excited.) - Two more months 2. A shake-out of the Asia Ah-Choo Flu - At least six months out 3. The Clinton impeachment to stop bugging the over moralistic investment community - This could go to the end of his term All in all, I will pick August as a good month to have stocks like MDCO rattling around the low to middle thirties. Ya see Ed, I own enough MDCO to paper my bathroom. Erwin