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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1295)	1/23/1998 9:08:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 18691

A good long pick in oil is KCS. Fell last year due to a legal settlement and extra costs in one field, but due to be producing well (pardon the pun) in 1998. Watch for this Q's earnings; if they make .25 and the market holds with a firming oil price, I'll go long to diversify my portfolio. Recomended to me by a collegaue with almost as many years in the market as you.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1295)	1/23/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: Ploni	Respond to of 18691

Roger, You are right to be thinking ahead and thinking of the big picture. I don't know much about Gore, other than that he has more of a reputation as a "tree-hugger" than Clinton. That might give a boost to some environmental remediation companies, and hurt polluters who are currently buying credits from cleaner companies. I don't have any names to offer yet. As far as oil, I still think it may be too early. Donald Gold has an interesting article in the commodities section of today's Investors Business Daily. There has been a big surge in U.S. imports of crude oil. Inventory last week was up 14.643 million barrels to 318.091 million barrels, or 4.83%. Analysts had only expected a gain of about 3 million barrels, and the 14.643 million was the biggest one-week jump in years. One analyst, Tim Evans, said that warmer weather as a result of "El Nino is hurting the demand for heating oil." He also cited the Asian flu. Oil-producing countries such as Malaysia (which isn't a member of the OPEC cartel, and thus isn't subject to a quota) will pump more to make up for their devastated currencies. On the other hand, recession in the region will result in lower demand for products, and thus lower demand for energy.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1295)	1/23/1998 9:27:00 AM
From: frank 3	Respond to of 18691

dear roger what will happen when the bombs start dropping on iraq again. we are not far from that happening. info from good friend at pentagon. again, what should we buy or short.sure makes for an interesting 98. regards frank3

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1295)	1/23/1998 11:49:00 AM
From: WBendus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, My pick in the oil services field would have to be MIND, (Mitcham Industries). The stock had a very successful run with all of the other oil/oil services stocks when that sector was hot back in the spring. While I think that your call for an oil shock may be a prudent one, I suspect that it might be a bit premature. I might be inclined to give it month or so and wait for a bottom in June futures for crude. Wayde.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1295)	1/23/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Re: Oil prices. Based on the correction in the oil service sector I've been buying heavily. I think even if these companies miss estimates by a few pennies they still represent good growth/values. This sector is better than it's been in 10 yrs and at this point the price of oil has more upside than downside. GLM is a large cap with a low PE. Jim

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1295)	1/23/1998 2:52:00 PM
From: Fernando Saldanha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, all of the oil drilling companies, like ESV, GLM, PKD, RIG, etc. will soar if there is an oil shock. There is no need to be picky. There are very few offshore platforms under construction right now, and the rental prices for existing platforms are soaring. Given the lag to build new platforms these companies would have at least two outstanding years in case there is an oil shock. By the way, they had a very profitable 97. They are going down now because with low oil prices people believe rental prices will fall. Best regards.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1295)	1/23/1998 4:59:00 PM
From: S Shaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger et al.: Greetings from sunny Fla. Managed to get to a computer at a Kinko's. With respect to oil companies. I have read Douglas Casey's book and get his newsletter. He gives the thumbs up to a couple of companies. Berry Petroleum-"BRY". Small outfit that he claims is well run and has little debt. Ditto as to Panhandle Royalty and Questa oil and gas. The first two kick out a quarterly dividend. there are several others but since I do not have my trusty library at my fingertips until I get home on Sunday afternoon, I can't give you any more. Additionally, in last week Barron's, there was a roundtable discussion. There was one stock of a foreign company that just found a major league deposit off the Burmese coast. Since they are off-limits due to their human rights record, several american companies had to sell off their interests to this one company. Scott Shaw

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1295)	1/24/1998 3:39:00 AM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Given a significant probability of an oil supply disruption before the end of 1998, what should we buy/short? If oil prices go up, the alternatives (eg coal) will benefit. One interesting play might be BHP, who used to be Australia's largest company until a couple of months ago. They have an oil division, and the also mine a large amount of coal. Note that they are also exposed to copper (I think they are the second biggest producer in the world) and steel, which may make them less attractive to you. There has been talk of selling the steel division, and if this eventuated a rally would be likely. In recent months the AUD price for BHP has dropped from $20 to about $14 because of a couple of management blunders, including a $1 billion cost overrun (!!) on a hot-briquetted iron project in Western Australia. BHP trades through American Depository Receipts in the US market under the ticker code BHP.