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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seth thomas who wrote (1482)	1/23/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3033

The Company is being very sloppy. It appears there are errors in the press release. Company press release has $0.19 per share basic and $0.19 diluted -- impossible if the diluted share count is over 3.5 million shares higher than the basic share count. Looks like fully diluted eps would have been $0.167. Reaction from analysts suggest revenues and eps were basically in line. estimates being modified to account for new share accoutning means that net net estimates are not increasing. Clam, you can't value vantive on what they have done, the stock is valued based on the likelihood of meeting or exceeding future estimates and what kind of p/e ratio future eps deserve. 1998 eps are sticking at $0.80 and not coming up. Since estimates are not increasing and the company is not seeing an acceleration in its results versus expectations -- especially versus seibel -- or where psft or baanf were at the same stage, you could make an argument that from a stock momentum basis, vantive is appropriately valued for now. This is especially true given that the company has been beating estimates before and these results are more in-line than in the past. For those of us who have done a ton of digging and understand the company's approach, building momentum, pipeline, strength of management, and realize that the results probably mask some cushion for future quarters it creates a buying opporutnity., To understand a stock price you have to realize that the average growth fund has over $900 million in its portfolio. If that fund had 150 positions in its portfolio, they'd have to own a position of 240,000 shares of Vantive! if you had 150 positions in your fund, how much time could you afford to do the work below the surface? How would you react in comparing sebl's results versus vntv? sebl kicks butt vntv does so so. Longer term i suspect you guys are right, i like the fundamentals a lot. (lots of worries though, i'm a worrier) but until you get good visibility into 1999 estimates of $1.10 or north you won't see the stock move into the 30's until folks are sure that 1998 is in the bag. TD