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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vattila who wrote (33717)	10/31/2019 3:25:19 PM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 73123

Thanks for your perspective — that's helpful to gauge the sentiment here about AMD's longterm future. I share much of your sentiment about AMD's long term future. However, there are macro economic concerns out of their control that can also come into play. In my opinion, anyone who has huge paper profits in AMD and who does not hedge against a possible huge economic event in the next 10 months is a dam fool. Look what happened in 2000......in 2008..........even in late 2018 when AMD and all high beta high fliers were cut in half..................do you realize that virtually everything is in far far worse shape now than in either 2000 or 2008? Concurrent asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate.....the world awash in debt.........trillions of sovereign debt with negative yields.....China who has been responsible for a good chunk of world wide growth over the past 10 years slowing rapidly.......central bankers powerless to do anything but keep the bubbles inflated.............monetizing trillion of dollars of debt by printing money..............does not the US sudden return to lowering rates and restarting QE after raising rates 7 times and claiming the reduction of the balance sheet would be like watching paint dry give you any pause?.........any pause at all??..................the crash is coming..........the question is when...........I still think it happens in the next 10 months as all the forces aligned against Trump (political left, statists, globalists, etc.) will do anything to take him out.

To: Vattila who wrote (33717)	10/31/2019 3:46:46 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 73123

I fully agree that Intel's 10nm was not pulled in as I feared it might be. Nvidia remains a wildcard, I think they screwed up by going with Samsung. So both Intel and Nvidia are currently at a process disadvantage, but as I noted, they both have somewhat superior products. Nvidia's process disadvantage will be gone in another qtr or two. Intel's looks set to take a little longer, but I'm pretty sure they will stick to their 10nm Xeon plans, where the lower frequency on large core counts will not be the issue it is for them on the DT. WRT to notebooks its not clear that AMD has made much progress. They need to get to Renoir. WRT to datacenter in Q3'19 that estimate of 252M is a bit lighter than mine at 270M but I agree its ballpark. BTW, look at the history of C&G shown in that chart. AMD needs to demonstrate that they can build a sustained biz in any of their segments. C&G grows from near 400M to around 1100M then craters to near 800M, now back up to 1300M. What will it do next? Note that not all of the crater down to 800M was GPU, some of it was caused by the early spike in Ryzen sales. There has likely been a similar spike in Ryzen 3K DT sales, which won't be sustainable either. Then AMD needs to build the OEM side to make up for that.