To: Brendan2012 who wrote (44895 ) 1/23/1998 11:29:00 AM From: Daniel L. Schuster Respond to of 58324
>>They are the market leader of a rapidly growing market, and it sure looks like they're going to stay that way. This is the most sensible comment I've heard in the last 24 hours. We are in the *earliest* stage of a large shift from the 1.44MB disk to something else. What will replace it? No single product certainly, but for the same purposes as the 1.44 is currently used, the ideal replacement must - store an *appropriate* amount of info. I don't need to carry around a gig of info but I often need to carry around more than 1.44 - be reasonably rugged. The usual practice is to stuff a 1.44 into a briefcase, pocket or backpack. They get dropped, kicked, tossed, etc. - must be essentially universal. Take it anywhere and a machine can read it - must be reasonably cheap. Cheap enough that I can hand one to a colleague and not worry about getting it back. How do the various technologies stack up? - storage? Zip and others hit this point perfectly. But Zip is the clear leader in sales. - ruggedness? Zip and similar media hit this point perfectly. As I understand it, media based on hard drive technology do not. Zip is the clear leader in sales. - universal? Nothing hits this point yet, but we are at the *beginning* of the transition. No technology, no company, no product could have hit this point yet. But Zip is the clear leader in sales. It is important to remember that the 1.44MB disk first appeared in general distribution in the middle 80s (at least to my knowledge). The 5.25 didn't dissappear till the mid 90s, and many machines still have them. The same will happen with whatever replaces the 1.44MB disk. - cheap? The $10 Zip doesn't hit this point, but we are at the *beginning* of the transition. Does anyone remember that 1.44MB disk used to cost around $5? As economies of scale continue to kick in, the price will drop. Lower profits? Maybe per disk, but they are selling disks by the boatload and will continue to do so. Zip is the clear leader in sales. Zip a commodity product? That's great by me, I'd love to own stock in the only company that could make microwaves. At the close of business yesterday IOM was about 3% of my portfolio. It is now about 7%. Good trading, Dan Schuster