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Biotech / Medical : NNVC - NanoViricides, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HardToFind who wrote (12407)	11/7/2019 11:38:11 AM
From: KMBJN.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12873

I agree completely that there is not much faith to be had in Diwan's self dealing and the lack of candor about things at NNVC - all in the past, but certainly relevant for the future. I'm just trying to figure out the odds of NNVC succeeding despite the high costs of Diwan taking a large cut for himself. I'm not trying to be overly critical of your "quick and dirty" analysis, but to try to refine it some if possible (and learn something in the process). No need to apologize for your response about my failure to account for Diwan's apparent ethical laxity. Refinement of "my model" is welcome. I'm not trying to present a fairy tale, just calculate the odds of success, if things go NNVC's way at long last. Probably wasting my time, but it's a fun exercise. Thanks for the clarification that COGS does not include SG&A. I didn't think it did, but assumed that was included in the model for some silly reason. At this point, I really just would like to see if the cides work in humans. Hope we get the chance to find out. What can I say? I am the eternal stubborn optimist, even when the reality of a failed investment is apparent. I still believe in the story of the science, or at least the possibility of the cides working. Cheers.

To: HardToFind who wrote (12407)	11/7/2019 1:49:33 PM
From: HardToFind	1 Recommendation Recommended By mattstat Respond to of 12873

Think of it this way. You hop into a cab with a sleezy driver (Diwan) who starts the meter and takes you whatever way he wants...while the meter is running on your dime. Better analogy: You hop into a cab, and the cabbie proceeds to run his personal errands (a trip to the grocery store, then to pick his kid up from school, then to his home where he delivers the kid and groceries and eats his lunch), all the while the meter is running on your dime. Yes, despite urging by then-CEO Seymour to pursue licensed indications for HSV-1 and HSV-2 that could be tested in animals first, Diwan instead diverted the direction of development to a then (supposedly) "unlicensed" indication for the same drug, spending over a year to validate a model using cadaver plugs to prove out an indication that could not be animal tested. Then he finally licenses this new indication for series A shares (i.e., continued voting control of the company even after the reverse split and the proposed massive dilution to existing shareholders), cash payments exceeding the current market capitalization of the company, and an egregious 15% royalty for something NNVC had paid all of the expenses to develop. If you like betting on the horse (the science) it seems like a good bet; but if you're more a fan of betting on the jockey, this is a very tempting short. It can still lose 100% from here.