Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : The Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (143137)

11/9/2019 12:21:49 PM

From: i-node

Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 356033

>> not 40-45%.

You're still not getting it. National polls aren't the story. State polls are.

Your 40-45% comes from pollsters calling a thousand phone numbers drawn at random from all over the country. Arkansas, NY, California, South Dakota, etc. It is analogous to a popular vote. And we know how much value you get from that. Your entire complaint with electoral college is it gives more power to small states. Why would you sample them as though that law didn't exist?

These are the polls that matter, and there is no 40-45%. And you can see they depend slightly on who the Democrat candidate it, but they are a lot closer generally than you suggest and it is early. These are the states that will control the outcome of the general election.

Florida: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 46, Trump 44	Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Warren	NY Times/Siena	Trump 46, Warren 42	Trump +4
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders	NY Times/Siena	Trump 45, Sanders 44	Trump +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 46, Trump 44	Biden +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren	NY Times/Siena	Warren 45, Trump 47	Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders	NY Times/Siena	Sanders 47, Trump 46	Sanders +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 46, Trump 45	Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Warren	NY Times/Siena	Warren 44, Trump 46	Trump +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders	NY Times/Siena	Sanders 44, Trump 45	Trump +1
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Biden 49, Trump 51	Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	IBD/TIPP	Biden 53, Trump 43	Biden +10
Nevada: Trump vs. Warren	Emerson	Trump 51, Warren 49	Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders	Emerson	Sanders 50, Trump 50	Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	IBD/TIPP	Sanders 51, Trump 44	Sanders +7
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 45, Trump 44	Biden +1
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Biden 56, Trump 44	Biden +12
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren	NY Times/Siena	Warren 40, Trump 45	Trump +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren	Emerson	Warren 54, Trump 46	Warren +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders	NY Times/Siena	Sanders 46, Trump 42	Sanders +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders	Emerson	Sanders 57, Trump 43	Sanders +14
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 46, Trump 48	Trump +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren	NY Times/Siena	Trump 48, Warren 44	Trump +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders	NY Times/Siena	Sanders 44, Trump 48	Trump +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 49, Trump 46	Biden +3
Arizona: Trump vs. Warren	NY Times/Siena	Trump 47, Warren 46	Trump +1
Arizona: Trump vs. Sanders	NY Times/Siena	Trump 49, Sanders 45	Trump +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Trump 45, Biden 44	Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren	NY Times/Siena	Trump 47, Warren 40	Trump +7
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders	NY Times/Siena	Trump 47, Sanders 43	Trump +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Buttigieg	NY Times/Siena	Trump 45, Buttigieg 41	Trump +4
Texas: Trump vs. Biden	UT/Texas Tribune	Trump 46, Biden 39	Trump +7
Texas: Trump vs. Warren	UT/Texas Tribune	Trump 46, Warren 39	Trump +7
Texas: Trump vs. Sanders	UT/Texas Tribune	Trump 45, Sanders 40	Trump +5
Texas: Trump vs. Castro	UT/Texas Tribune	Trump 46, Castro 33	Trump +13