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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Trebor who wrote (3023)1/24/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: edward miller  Respond to of 42834
 
>I'm not sure you can compare the two events. In '72-'74 we had
Vietnam and the Cold War going on, plus we'd just gone through the
Spiro Agnew debacle, so we had a crisis of confidence in both the
No. 1 and No. 2 leaders of the nation. I don't think it's nearly as
scary this time.<

Well, I'm not so sure I'd agree completely. Spiro was long gone
before Watergate mushroomed - remember Gerald Ford was VP - and
the Cold War was just a continuous reality, so it didn't cause big
changes in psychology day to day. Actually, the degree of problems
may not matter that much. What I wanted to point out is that when
Watergate had Nixon's attention, it had all his focus, and everyone
on his staff, so they literally ignored their roles as leaders. I
don't think "Zippergate" will become like Watergate in terms of the
factual content. If people become focused on this scandal so much
that they loose faith in the leadership to the point that it affects
their daily emotions, people will stop buying because their confidence
is shattered. The impact can be devastating.

On the other hand, I don't really think it's going to be that bad.
It was important to point out that these issues CAN affect the market,
and have in the past, so keep your "feelers" alert for signs of decay
in confidence - else you may get blindsided by a downturn that you
didn't see coming.