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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (6962)	1/23/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 13594

Hi Barry; I'm just not into AOL at this time enough to say one way or another. She sure has feed on shorts a lot longer than I or 90% of them dreamed she would. That in itself is a trend, as long as new ones come in it could continue. With options I found a place were I was charting them, but have not used it in some time and would have to hunt like hell to find it again. When I play them, (1) I like to pick the ones with a lot of open interest. (2) I chart them back at least six months to "see at what price most of them sold at" (3) If all things else point up or down ( if I'm doing call or puts ) In still want to buy my options not over 1/3rd the price that the most of the previous ones sold at..prefer a 1/4 or more. --------------- And that's with every thing else looking my way, I want odds "strong odds" and knowledge I've got a position better than vast majority. This has paid off, but reduced the options I played. Last year I did better on calls than puts, of couse it was an up market..options in a flat market..or one with out a strong trend generally have more premium commision, and speard built into them % wise ) than the Beta of the stock, %ages are all importent, with expenses you need good percentages. --------------------------- Right now "bastets" I can trade cheap, at $24 a pop round trip and have other advantages too. WEBs SPY MDY DIA , and some CEs I get a flat $12 cost each way up to 5k shares. No loads cost me no fee at all and some have nice moves. I'll get back to AOL and options, if at all, only after I nail down my newer discoveries. Market/ Sector timing seems to have advantages hands down over picking issues. Cost wise , risk wise , time wise , more predictable resutls, and the steady pace looks like it will far outdo in time the few big hits you can find in issues. Up/or/down/or/flat we still have volitility..and getting in/out cheap and connecting within one day the next 3 or 4 day move when you have strong signs is sure fire gains. Backing out and passing when your signs don't show strong odds is absolutly a must. I got to much time at the race track and have watched the suckers who run to the ticket window on every race lose their shirts, I don't spend a lot of time on the could haves, just the results. The could haves get your eyes off the ball, it's just not handicapping, it's getting the odds that the herd misses or over looks. You got to find what's over looked and every one else is not betting on, but it also has to have a hidden value the crowd don't see, odds alone won't cut it. ------------------------------ At the track it was ( inside info the general puplic didn't get ) that put things in my favor. The same holds true in the market. With out connections you have to develope a way of reading between the lines that others haven't caught onto, and you have to have a way of confirming the deductions to hit at least 70% of the time. In the last 7 weeks I'v missed 1, thatsnoshit. and with that average I think you can understand why I'm not jacking with issues, other than the MOOV , VUPDA play I was already in , I'm out , and in spite of the fact I'm 90% sure that AR is a steal, I don't have the resourses to spread my self both ways, I can play baskets, or stocks not both, and after the MOOV play I will likley be all in baskets, I can use the fumbdums igronace aginst him, I've found the soft spot. And while it makes me feel a little like jack the ripper, what the hell most of them are worse. Jim