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To: Kerry Phineas who wrote (27026)	1/23/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Kerry, it's tough to have confidence in anything on this one. Maybe we're getting back to the pattern of peaks around the 11th day of the options cycle. That seemed to occur w/ some frequency the first half of 1997. On the notion that Kurlak is a quasi/closet technician, I think it's interesting that he called for the pullback after a roughly 50% climb off the lows. Taking the low as 21 5/8 and the high as 32 1/2, that comes to 50.59%. If it somehow makes it to 38-40 (which from a fundamental standpoint, IMHO is premature, given that there's always a chance some of the anticipated benefits of the cutbacks are offset by other factors; although if it closes @ 38 on 2/1/97, call me Nostradamus--do you remember those wacky predictions you, Sridhar, Pete M. and I made back in early August?), that's when I'd consider a thermonuclear strike on the short side from a TA standpoint if it doesn't breakout with any conviction. Other than that, the thing's likely to keep keying off spot prices after the analyst effects play themselves out. Who knows? Good trading, Tom