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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (22512)	11/18/2019 12:31:23 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Is Japanification the New Normal? yes. Germany needs €452bn public investment after lost decadePoor mobile coverage and red tape in building out roads are on entrepreneurs' laundry list of complaints 18.11.2019 Photo: Shutterstock Germany requires €452 billion in public investments to modernise its infrastructure after doing too little for decades, the country's top union and industry leaders said on Monday. Europe's largest economy, which narrowly escaped recession in the third quarter, now requires massive funds to catch up, become more competitive and boost its growth potential, said the study commissioned by the union federation, DGB, and the industry federation, BDI. The country, famed for autobahns without speed limits and high-tech engineering, ranked fifth-to-last out of 28 EU countries in terms of providing digital public services, according to the European Commission. Poor mobile coverage and red tape in building out roads or wind energy are also on entrepreneurs' laundry list of complaints. After years of fixing its public accounts, it was now time to put investments in the forefront again, helping to fuel growth and living up to Germany's responsibility in Europe, said Michael Huether, director at the Cologne-based Institute of the German Economy, one of the two think tanks that drafted the paper. After finance minister Olaf Scholz gained some reprieve last week with marginally better-than-expected growth, the topic is now back in the limelight, with two influential organisations such as the DGB and the BID joining forces to urge more spending. "The fact that we put our heads together, were driven by concern over lacking investment, and commissioned our economic institutes to back that up scientifically, shows that this is a real concern," said Dieter Kempf, head of the powerful industry lobby BDI. ©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

To: Don Green who wrote (22512)	11/23/2019 11:04:31 AM
From: Don Green	2 Recommendations Recommended By elmatador sixty2nds Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

China Today is Like Japan in 1989 dg> As I have said repeatedly the rest of the world could learn a lot from following the Japanese experience and their mistakes in handling it. But doesn't seem the rest of the world has learned from it China is slowly and surely going down the path of Japan. It is aging rapidly as bad bank debts pile up. ‘Japanification’ Stalks the US, Europe, and China The Financial Times comments ‘Japanification’ stalks the US and Europe The FT did not include China in its discussion. Let's take a look down that path. Japanification of China Well Underway A Fascinating Conversation With Renowned Short Seller Jim Chanos on Hedgeye TV got me thinking more about China. I made 15 notes. Consider notes 4 and 6. 4: China is still the biggest real estate bubble in history. 6: Similarities between Japan in 1980's and China Today. China’s Looming Crisis Please consider China’s Looming Crisis: A Shrinking Population. A decline in the birth rate and an increase in life expectancy means there will soon be too few workers able to support an enormous and aging population, the academy warned. The academy estimated the contraction would begin in 2027, though others believe it would come sooner or has already begun. The government has recognized the worrisome demographic trend and in 2013 began easing enforcement of the “one child” policy in certain circumstances. It then raised the limit to two children for all families in 2016, in hopes of encouraging a baby boom. It did not work. Population Demographics China resembles Japan in what is arguably the most important long-term factor affecting debt and prices: population demographics. Japan’s paradigm shifted when it’s workforce began to shrink, which was ~15 years before its overall population began shrinking, and China is in a very similar position today. $250 Trillion in Global Debt: How Can That Be Paid back? In light of population demographics, increasing needs of healthcare of retirees, and massively underfunded pensions I again ask, $250 Trillion in Global Debt: How Can That Be Paid back? Population demographics alone show the futility of central bank efforts to cram more debt into a global financial system choking on debt. A currency crisis awaits, please click on the above link for further discussion. Meanwhile, please ask, what the hell China is going to do with the massive number of vacant and unaffordable apartments it is building. moneymaven.io