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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: robert b furman who wrote (4004)11/20/2019 1:22:00 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13791
 
Climate change: China coal surge threatens Paris targets

That's according to a study that says China is now in the process of building or reviving coal equivalent to the EU's entire generating capacity.
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent



Construction at Shanxi coal power plant was stopped in July 2017 but resumed in March 2019While the rest of the world has cut coal-based electricity over the past 18 months, China has added enough to power 31 million homes.

That's according to a study that says China is now in the process of building or reviving coal equivalent to the EU's entire generating capacity.

China is also financing around a quarter of all proposed coal plants outside its borders.

Researchers say the surge is a major threat to the Paris climate targets.

Musicians 'have to be proactive' on climate change Climate signal links global floods and fires Warming makes bigger hurricanes more damaging Is China behind global coal power surge?China's reliance on coal as a key step in developing the economy led to the fabled "one coal plant a week" building programme between 2006 and 2015.

But the push had many negative consequences, choking the air with pollution in many Chinese cities and leading to huge overcapacity. Many of these plants were only able to run 50% of the time.

In 2015, in an attempt to curb the growth, the national government tried to clamp down on new-build coal. However, it continued to allow provincial governments the freedom to issue permits for new coal plants. That move misfired badly.

Local authorities subsequently permitted up to five times more plants than in any comparable period.

According to Ted Nace, from coal researchers Global Energy Monitor, it was like a "snake swallowing a goat".

"This goat that the snake swallowed is still moving through the snake, and it's coming out in the form of another 20% in the Chinese coal fleet on top of a fleet that was already over-built," Mr Nace added.

The researchers say that through 2018 and up to June 2019, countries outside of China cut their coal power capacity by 8.1 gigawatts (GW). In the same period, China added 43GW, enough to power around 31 million homes.

The authors say that right now the amount of coal power under construction or under suspension and likely to be revived is about 147.7GW, an amount that is almost the same as the entire coal generating capacity of the European Union (150GW).

Compared to the rest of the world, China is building about 50% more coal plants than are under construction in all other countries combined.



A coal power plant in Jiangxi, ChinaThe country is on track to top 1,100GW of coal by 2020.

The Chinese government has signalled that it wants to rely less on coal for the country's energy production and is making some headway cutting coal's share of total energy from 68% in 2012 to 59% in 2018.

However, despite the share going down, absolute coal consumption has gone up in line with overall energy demand.

What concerns the researchers is that within China, coal and electricity industry groups are pushing for an even bigger increase in the country's overall coal power capacity.c
"The thing we are super worried about is that industry has actually organised to keep the whole thing going," said Ted Nace.

"There are three different powerful trade groups, proposing to increase the coal fleet by 40%. This is sheer madness at this point."

China is also busy financing coal development outside the country, funding over a quarter of all the coal plants outside its borders in countries like South Africa, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Observers outside of China say they are concerned that by building or permitting these plants, the authorities are locking in a form of power generation that just doesn't make sense economically.

"The economics will not be borne out," said Mark Lewis, head of climate change investment research at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

"I would argue that almost all this new capacity that's being added will never make the economic return on which they have been premised. Those assets that are coming online now will have to be written down; they will be stranded assets essentially."

The bigger question is how this new coal will affect the ability of the world to meet the targets set out in the Paris climate agreement.

The researchers say that by 2030, China needs to reduce its coal power capacity by over 40% from current levels in order to meet the reductions required to hold global warming well below 2C.

"China's proposed coal expansion is so far out of alignment with the Paris Agreement that it would put the necessary reductions in coal power out of reach, even if every other country were to completely eliminate its coal fleet," said co-author Christine Shearer of Global Energy Monitor.


"Instead of expanding further, China needs to make significant reductions to its coal fleet over the coming decade."

Global Energy Monitor was originally known as Coal Swarm and has received funding from environmental groups, including the ClimateWorks Foundation, the Rockefeller Family fund, the US National Resources Defence Council, the European Climate Foundation, among others.

Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathbbc.



To: robert b furman who wrote (4004)11/22/2019 4:48:15 AM
From: elmatador1 Recommendation

Recommended By
DinoNavarre

  Respond to of 13791
 
China’s skyscraper boom comes down to earth

Construction of tall buildings hit as slowing economy trims credit supply



The super tall skyscraper project in Wuhan on which construction has stopped due to a default on a payment

A subsidiary of China’s largest construction group has suspended work on one of the nation’s tallest skyscrapers after the developer became the latest in a string of companies to default on a payment.

The default highlights the growing challenges faced by China’s construction groups as the slowing economy trims credit supply, putting the once runaway mega-tower building boom under stress.

In an October 30 letter seen by the Financial Times, China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Co said it would halt construction on a 475m-high skyscraper in the central city of Wuhan. It said Greenland Group, one of the nation’s largest property companies, had failed to make “a significant” project payment.

“Unfinished super tall skyscrapers, which cost a huge amount of funds to build, are a typical sign of economic recession,” said Yan Yuejin, an analyst at Shanghai-based E-house China Research and Development Institution. “They are financed by credit and will run into trouble when lenders begin to scale back.”

China reported year-on-year economic growth of 6 per cent in the third quarter, its slowest pace in 30 years.

Cash-strapped property developers have been struggling to keep their tall-building projects afloat © Bloomberg

Other cash-strapped property developers have also been struggling to keep their tall-building projects afloat. FT research reveals that construction of more than a dozen super tall skyscrapers, defined as buildings higher than 300m, has been postponed or is behind schedule.

Among them is Zhongnan Center in the eastern city of Suzhou. Construction of the 729m skyscraper would make it the second highest in the world if it were ever completed, but building work stalled shortly after construction began in 2015.

“The most rational choice for us is to construct at a slow pace until the market recovers,” said an official at Zhongnan Group, developer of the Suzhou project.

An official at Greenland, which has developed dozens of skyscrapers across the country, told the FT that the company had worked out a plan with CCTEBC and construction would resume soon. Wuhan City Government had already asked Greenland to trim the height of the structure.

If the Wuhan Greenland Center construction does proceed, it still faces an uncertain future. Office buildings in Wuhan reported a 36.2 per cent vacancy rate, a near record high, in the third quarter of this year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, which expects the ratio to keep rising as anticipated new supply floods in.

Recommended China Economic Slowdown China’s waning appetite for stimulus weighs on global economy

“Demand for office space has weakened considerably due to the slowing economy,” said Cherry Hu, an analyst at Cushman & Wakefield in Wuhan.
“The situation is not going to improve any time soon.”

Li Guozheng, an analyst at China Index Academy, a property consultancy, said Greenland faced a dilemma. “You can’t give up on the project because you have already invested heavily in it,” said Mr Li. “But if you go ahead, you run the risk of not being able to find renters while having to pay sky-high maintenance bills.”

Until recently, Greenland had been able to rely on selling expensive residential apartments, which it would develop adjacent to its multi-use mega buildings, to insure itself against any potential losses from empty office space. The strategy, however, is under pressure as sales of luxury homes have fallen of
to the cooling economy and a crackdown on housing speculation. f

“There is a fundamental problem with Greenland’s business model,” said Mr Li. “It doesn’t take into account an economic downturn.”



To: robert b furman who wrote (4004)11/22/2019 5:46:57 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13791
 
Why the Alarmists are seeking a new El Dorado

The golden age is long over for Europe’s construction companies. In the wake of the longest recession of the postwar era, their two largest sources of finance — governments and banks — are either unable or unwilling to spend or lend, leaving many once-thriving companies on the brink.

New Market Rigging Scandal Tangles Up Already Teetering Construction Giants in Europe

by Don Quijones • Oct 17, 2018 • 19 Comments
Italian and Spanish construction companies with global projects on the brink or over the brink.
By Don Quijones, Spain, UK, & Mexico, editor at WOLF STREET.

The golden age is long over for Europe’s construction companies. In the wake of the longest recession of the postwar era, their two largest sources of finance — governments and banks — are either unable or unwilling to spend or lend, leaving many once-thriving companies on the brink.

Last July, the Spanish building firm Isolux Corsan declared bankruptcy, leaving 3,884 workers and 119 global construction projects in the lurch. Seven months after its collapse, the bankruptcy receivers announced that the group’s total had €4 billion more in debt than previously disclosed.

At the beginning of this year it was UK outsourcing giant Carillion to file for liquidation after failing to secure a government bailout, leaving bank lenders and bondholders holding a bag containing 1.6 billion pounds ($2.1 billion) of virtually worthless debt.

This is one of the inevitable problems that arise whenever a large construction firm collapses: It leaves large holes on banks’ balance sheets. Banks in Italy are owed €102 billion by the construction industry, which accounts for the highest default rates in the country, reports Bloomberg. With Astaldi SpA readying plans to restructure as much as €2.5 billion of debt, three of the top six Italian builders are now either insolvent or negotiating with creditors.

In Spain one company that is setting off alarm bells is the debt-laden, scandal-tarnished OHL, which is on the verge of becoming a penny stock after its share price plunged nearly 80% year-to-date, about half of it over the past six months, to €1.24 on Wednesday. Four years ago, the shares were worth €17 a piece.

The firm’s problems began in earnest in the first half of 2016, when it reported its worst ever half-year results. OHL’s profits shrank 94% during the six-month period, leading to the firm’s removal from Spain’s benchmark index, the IBEX 35, due to insufficient capitalization.

One of the biggest factors in the company’s decline was its steady loss of international contracts. Since the collapse of Spain’s real estate sector in 2008-09, opportunities for large construction firms in the once-abundant home market had run dry. The ability to survive the new reality hinged on firms’ ability to carve out new opportunities abroad. This is something OHL excelled at, winning prestigious construction and infrastructure projects all over the world, from Montreal to Mecca, from Mexico to Manila.

But by 2016 things had soured, particularly in the Middle East. Qatar terminated a contract worth €1.1 billion for the construction of two metro stations in Doha, citing an apparent “failure to fulfill certain contractual obligations.” OHL was also closely involved in the initially highly prestigious but ultimately financially disastrous project to build a high-speed rail line from Medina to Mecca, which was finally inaugurated last month, six years behind schedule.

The company also faced a bribery and price-rigging scandal in Mexico, one of its most lucrative markets. At one point it paid lawyers and auditors from all of the “Big Four” firms — Deloitte (its long-time auditor), KPMG, PwC and Ernst & Young — to vouch for its innocence. That didn’t stop Mexico’s securities authority from finding the company guilty of a series of violations of stock market laws and slapping the firm with the biggest fine in its history.

To provide some respite to its creditors and shareholders as well as keep the bailiffs off its back, OHL has pawned many of its most valuable assets, including its concession unit to the Australian investment fund FMI. But the bleeding continues.

At the end of September it reported shrinking sales and revenues for the first half of this year as well as losses of €843 million, due largely to cost overruns across a number of projects as well as the loss of its highly profitable concessions business. On that day its shares plunged 23%.

And the financial pressures continue to mount. In September Credit Agricole, Santander, HSBC and Deutsche Bank kindly reminded Grupo Villar Mir, the family business that owns 51% of OHL’s shares, that the company has short-term debt obligations worth some €500 million. Shortly after, the company was in contact with China State Construction Engineering, one of the world’s largest contractors, over potentially selling a stake.

But even that desperate ruse may have been nipped in the bud by the emergence last week of another major scandal implicating OHL. On Thursday, Spain’s National Market and Competition Commission accused the company of colluding with six other major construction firms, Acciona, Corsán-Corviam (part of Grupo Isolux Corsán), Dragados (ACS), (Carlos Slim-owned) FCC, Ferrovial, OHL and Sacyr, to rig the bidding processes for major public projects throughout Spain.

Following a series of inspections, the watchdog believes “there is compelling evidence” of the existence of “agreements and information sharing” between these seven construction firms with the goal of “restricting competition” in public tenders for the construction and rehabilitation of infrastructures and buildings.

Given the mind-boggling scale and scope of the corruption unearthed in Spain in recent years, the fact that seven of the country’ largest construction firms now stand accused of operating an informal cartel that made it much more difficult for smaller, less connected firms to compete for public tender projects should come as little surprise.

It’s not clear what the eventual outcome of the investigation will be, or what kind of punishment, if any, will be meted out if the seven companies are found guilty. But for OHL, a company so close to the brink of financial collapse and desperately trying to attract outside investors in order to keep servicing its debt, the added uncertainty and reputational damage resulting from the new scandal may well be punishment enough. By Don Quijones.