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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (650)	11/25/2019 12:41:08 AM
From: Underexposed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 914

USA: Cohu Inc. [NASD:COHU] end of run evaluation My thoughts on Cohu : SI:Message 32428625 The link did not copy but if someone wants to see your message they can get it from your message. I learned a lot from that post of yours but I am not sure things are as negative as you make out. We have had a great run in the last 4 weeks and it has suddenly ended but is it going to fall back to where it started???? I am not so sure there is not some point of support that will stop the fall. Ok I will try a full-meal-deal chart analysis to see where we are at now. P&F Chart Imagine you watching an action movie and the hero falls from a fight at the top of a building under construction with layers of scaffolding underneath. Any piece of that scaffolding could stop his fall and save his life. Well that first support was nothing at all really it smashed quickly at $18.75...normally now it is a resistance but it collapsed so easily I doubt it will be strong as a resistance later on. we have several more steps of support and have stopped at the next one at $17.50.... It does look less robust than the previous support as it has fewer points defining it...but who knows??? If it fails we get progressively stronger supports....I doubt it will break that last one....Mildly bearish The column SMA's are pretty good... not bullish yet as the Blue line is below the Red one but looks good... Mildly bullish. Trigger Chart You can see that the support at $17.00 worked for one day as it stopped that drop... the previous pseudo support did not even cause a hesitation at $18.75 when a stock price enters a consolidation phase there is a natural tendency to migrate to its 20day SMA. This stock resisted that tendency but suddenly dropped...gathering momentum as it did, crashing that first support until it passed the 20 daySMA but now the pendulum should be the reverse now, attracting the price upwards to the 20day SMA again.... sort like dropping a slinky and holding onto one end.... eventually it rises and falls until it finds an equilibrium. mildly bearish You can see that the 50daySMA has recently crossed the 200day SMA and though the slope of this SMA has decreased it has not reversed direction mildly bullish Look at the slow sto.... after a 10%+ fall it is still above 50...it is only mildly bearish The MACD is falling but that is normal for what is happening. There is no Bull/Bear in the BBwidth... it is the trigger to a major movement and this is not a major movement as much as it looks like one right now. The pink box at the bottom shows the point where a major movement is triggered... we are at least 10 - 15 business days away from that point. Sentiment chart This chart is not bad at all. Ignore the Par Sar to me it is meaningless in a consolidation unless it strikes in the throat of a bollie squeeze. HOWEVER, If you were a short term player the Par Sar striking the underside of the share price would not be a bad sell signal. The Force(30) is not bearish yet mildly bullish The RSI(30) is neutral bullish The DI +/- is still bullish but needs to reverse direction and diverge from each other. The Ichimoku chart This chart is quite good. See how high above the clouds the share price is.... there are signs of trouble on the horizon in the form of that green cloud but it has about 2 weeks to clear that cloud. The thin red/blue lines have stopped converging and are far apart ... bullish The On Bal volume is negative slope but not serious yet ... mildly bearish The CCI is about to cross zero...mildly bearish The CMF is decidedly bullish Conclusion Let's look at the consensus Bullish ................... 3 Mildly Bullish ......... 3 Neutral Bullish ...... 1 Neutral .................. 0 Neutral Bearish...... 0 Mildly Bearish ........ 5 Bearish .................. 0 Cancelling opposites Bullish ................... 2 Mildly Bullish ......... 0 Neutral Bullish ...... 0 Neutral .................. 0 Neutral Bearish...... 0 Mildly Bearish ....... 0 Bearish .................. I cancelled 1 neutral Bullish + 1 Bullish for 2 mildly Bearish So... I would say things are not desperate even though they look bad in the trigger chart. In aprevious post I arbitrarily set a limit Stop-Loss at $16.50 -$16.00. I think that is a bit high... I am going to lower that setting to reflect falling below $16.00... we would still make some profit but more to the point give this stock a chance to survive this consolidation. Effective today the Limit stop-loss for 2000 shares of COHU will be reduced to a trigger at $15.95 with a limit to $15.85. If the price falls below this then we would be in danger of entering that green cloud and potentially crossing below the cloud and that would not be good UE