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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1351)	1/23/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger - I like your airlines idea as short in case oil spikes. May also look at air-freight. ABF probably has lower oil prices factored into earnings/price. CTXS moving along nicely. What is 200 DMA for CTXS? Thanks Mike

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1351)	1/23/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: WBendus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, You had mentioned shorting Airlines in the face of an oil shock, which I think is a good play if an oil shock brews. Other segments that would be affected are interest rate sensitive plays like the financials. Airlines could be a bit tricky to short because the strong dollar is likely to bolster lots of overseas travel and I am not sure how the dollar reacts in the face of climbing energy prices. I suspect that the dollar would remain strong since we have one of the most stable and strong economies in the world. In that case, you may want to look for opportunities with domestic airlines, such as South West. Comments? Wayde.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (1351)	1/23/1998 7:36:00 PM
From: Fernando Saldanha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<<now what do I short that will go down due to an oil shock so that I can play both sides?>> 1) Airlines 2) Utilities depending on oil to produce electricity 3) Auto manufacturers depending heavily on gas guzzlers for their profits (all the big three). Oddly enough, if oil prices go very high the demand for drilling services and equipment could go down, as the demand for oil would contract. There is a range, probably $16-$22, in which this industry will do well. Best regards.