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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Nya_Quy who wrote (62928)12/1/2019 11:11:15 AM
From: bruwin2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Lance Bredvold
Winfastorlose

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78464
 
" .. perhaps you are interested in taking a look at it"

I, for one, did. And I often wonder why it is that there seems to be this fascination with "players" in the stock market about buying into companies that have had prolonged periods of Losing Money.

If a company cannot make a regular profit then what's the point in it continuing in that line of business ?
Are serious investors really going to be attracted to a Loss-Making organization ?

There was much in your write up about FCF and EV, etc, but virtually nothing about ongoing Net Income Loss and the CONCURRENT Retained Income decline.


.

One sees a fairly stagnant and slightly declining Total Revenue. But after all is said and done there are ongoing Bottom Line losses. And all the FCF's and EV's aren't going to change that.

And then we go to the Balance Sheet .....



....... and not surprisingly we see a DECLINE in Retained Income.

Now you referred several times to share buy backs. But from which "pool of Assets" does a company go to to buy back its shares ?

Well, let's take a look at how Buffett sees "Retained Income" and the distinct advantage of having it GROW on a regular basis .......



So if a company is regularly Losing Money it's an obvious outcome that its Retained Income is Declining and its Total Assets, which contains the end result of its Cash Flow statement from within where the FCF is calculated, is being reduced relative to its Total Liabilities.

So I'd say that it's no wonder that GME's chart looks like this ......



There surely must be better places to invest ones money than going "down rabbit holes".



To: Nya_Quy who wrote (62928)12/1/2019 4:54:40 PM
From: $Value$  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78464
 
RE: GME

I like your optimism in the price points you expect the stock to hit. You have made a lot of valid points, however, I still don't see the stock hitting over $15 with no buybacks. Hopefully your right, but IMO the only way to hit that level would be after substantial repurchases.

The FCF was an attractive metric for me. With the upcoming console cycle I'm sure GME will be able to generate at least $550 Million in FCF from Q3 2019 to Year end 2021. My goal is to be out between Q2-Q3 2021, or when the stock hits $15 (Assuming large buybacks). I might change my mind as we see the next year and a half unfold.

-$Value$



To: Nya_Quy who wrote (62928)12/1/2019 5:03:37 PM
From: Paul Senior  Respond to of 78464
 
GME. Nice analysis, Nya_Quy!