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Technology Stocks : CellularVision (CVUS): 2-way LMDS wireless cable. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Davis who wrote (907)	1/23/1998 7:30:00 PM
From: Steven Bowen	Respond to of 2063

Dan, my two cents worth; I think you have it backwards; LMDS has the potential to leave all other advances in telecommunications in the dust. My big question; Does CVUS have the type of management that can fully take advantage of CVUS's position? At this time, I think not. I think they need to start loading up on some top-notch management from the telecommunication world. Like Teligent landing Mandl. I don't think CVUS is ready to compete in the telecom world. Of course, management may just be positioning the company to be sold around auction time. JMHO's, Steve

To: Daniel Davis who wrote (907)	1/23/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2063

My take on LMDS and CVUS: I agree with Steve's view that LMDS has tremendous potential as a technology. In the long run, it could drive a stake through the heart of ADSL and cable modem companies, because of its extreme deployment flexibility. Note also that there is a subtle difference between services that LMDS operators will be able to offer and those that operators in the 24GHz (TGNT) and 38GHz (WCII) bandwidth will be able to offer. To be able to offer the full range telephony/Internet access/ video services, I suspect that operators need at least one GHz of bandwidth, unless they deploy highly efficient digital modulation schemes (such as QAM) which until now remain somewhat unproven in this part of the spectrum. Thus WCII can certainly offer telephony and data, but I have my doubts concerning the inclusion of video, unless WCII gets more licenses. The 39GHz auction might create such an opportunity, but the bottom line is that to exploit fully the potential of LMDS, one needs a huge amount of bandwidth. I am less sure about CVUS, but would not be as severe as Steve. First of all, their lack of progress was significantly influenced by the FCC's perpetual delay of the LMDS spectrum auction. Without licenses, you cannot do anything, and clearly the FCC dropped the ball. Also, CVUS has been constrained by the equipment commercially available. They first deployed a rather simple FM system, and are now deploying the HLIT modems based on QPSK modulation. Because they were the first in the field, their options were limited. Hopefully, they will upgrade their infrastructure to the more sophisticated systems developed by HP/STII or Bosch Telecom. Next month will really tell whether CVUS is either a long term hold,or a stock which should be sold when it reaches a more realistic valuation around $15. If Shant Hovnanian negotiates partnerships with bigger players and takes big steps towards creating a nationwide LMDS operation, CVUS could be worth holding for the long term. Otherwise it will be a sell. As Steve suggests, it is high time that experienced telco or cable/IT professionals should be brought into CVUS's management team. Regards, Bernard Levy