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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (1471)	1/24/1998 10:17:00 AM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 9980

A repost of Jess Beltz on the SI Blood in the Streets Thread. You are out there in this sector and thought this might interest all of you. (C) Jess Beltz For private use only. To: +Wes (4554 ) From: +Jess Beltz Saturday, Jan 24 1998 12:55AM EST Reply # of 4568 Wes, let me respond. I think that everything right now hinges on what happens in Japan. Indonesia is spiralling out of control, and is on the fast track to economic collapse, but the fate of all of Asia, and ultimate recession in the West, hinges on whether or not the Japanes clean up the mess in their banking sector, and the resolution of that question should come within 4 months. If they do not, then the gloomy picture you forecast coild easily come true. If they do, however, then the picture will brighten considerably, and for one huge reason. I saw a poll yesterday on Asia Business News (I live in Hong Kong) that indicated that something like 98% of executives interviewed believed that the industry that would lead Asia out of its woes would be the high-tech electronics industry. Currently, many of the semi components of firms are buried in huge conglomerates. All of these businesses will face cutbacks in spending. That is true. And the Market, because it is afraid, is predicting that the semi divisions will face the cutbacks in full measure, and there are in fact order pushouts going on right now. The market is reacting out of fear that this will continue. I don't think it will. In light of the above sentiment, the Asian semiconductor manufacturers cannot be left producing DRAM and microprocessors that nobody will want within a year. The Asian governments simply CANNOT let the workhorse industry group decay into obsolesence. Even though Hyundai and Samsung, as conglomnerates, will face credit restrictions and budget cuts, I predict that the semi divisions will get the green light for full upgrade ramp ups, and that the semi industry will begin to see good times again by the end of the second quarter of this year. I would avoid the sector right now, but I think the second half of the year will see the storm clouds blow away....... If the Japanese put THEIR house in order. If not, things look bleak through the the end of the Millenium, and possibly beyond. jess