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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ajay Nandanwar who wrote (27062)	1/23/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Kerry Phineas	Respond to of 53903

Ajay, other than DRAM prices falling 50% w/in three months, can't think of any reasons why Kurlak would have downgraded the stock.

To: Ajay Nandanwar who wrote (27062)	1/23/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

Ajay, here's a blurb from the Infobeat Closing Bell service: * Merrill Lynch said on Friday analyst Thomas Kurlak saw MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC's share price declining to $20 per share, believing the recent rally in the stock price was unsustainable. Kurlak sees no recovery in Micron's 1998 earnings, Merrill said. Prices for 16 megabit dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs) were at equilibrium and prices would likely remain too low to drive a recovery in earnings, Merrill said. The supply of DRAM chips from South Korea has not abated, firm said. Micron is not positioned in 64 megabit DRAMs, it said. (Reuters 10:04 AM ET 01/16/98) I find that last line VERY interesting, as I am currently viewing a Merrill research bulletin on MU dated 6/24/97 with the following bold-faced header: 64 Mb Competitive Edge Page two of the doc. contains the following language: Production is ramping up now and is expected to be only 1-2 million this quarter. In FY1998 we estimate 40 million units will be sold by Micron, representing about 13% of the world market. Its market share of the 64 Mb could approach 20% in 1999, a record high for Micron. His name appears at the top of the bulletin. The rating at the time Merrill was estimating "a successful transition to the 64 Mb about six months earlier than expected" was intermediate-term "accumulate"/long-term "buy". Now it's "neutral"/"neutral". Of course, God forbid the financial media would actually go "wait a second - back in June they were ready to take on the world in the 64's and get 13% of the 64Mb market; now they are not positioned?". IMHO, Reuters has had problems when it comes to articles that contain the phrase "Merrill said." For example, if I recall correctly, Reuters ran an article citing a Merrill source as saying that Kurlak had cut his FY'97 estimate on MU to 1.05 on 9/23/97, the morning after their earnings report for FY'97 was released after the bell on 9/22/97 and just happened to be 1.05. Obviously, something's not kosher there. At this point, IMHO his calls are more self-fulfilling prophecies than anything approaching an "edge" in terms of actual research. The guy's a gold mine if you can time short-term positions in the opposite direction of his calls once the weak hands give in, as I think the price action in MU Friday-to-Friday may demonstrate <g> Good trading, Tom