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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (152162)	12/19/2019 6:55:56 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217732

Re <<Make Earth Cold Again>> Am, per usual, after so few days (4) in tropical backwater, turning troppo but for the exercise I get on-line, and from sharing meals w/ fellow transients. Observations, - something happens to Chinese girls (Penang is 60+% ethnic Chinese) once they are in the tropics; perhaps it is all the fruits and such. They are distinctly different in personality etc. Dunno. Maybe it is a Penang thing. - days pass quickly and nothing much gets done, relative to Hong Kong - in any end of the world scenario, perhaps best to be in the tropics - doubtful civilisation-building can be hub-ed out of the tropics - beer is best when in the tropics - unsure that making the world iced over improves much of anything. Unwilling to test thesis that champions ice age. Looking forward to returning to hubbub of HK

To: Snowshoe who wrote (152162)	1/15/2020 10:55:08 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217732

Anguishing disappointment ... bloomberg.com Kyle Bass’s Doomsday Call on Hong Kong Isn’t Convincing Markets Kyle Bass Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergHong Kong’s currency and stock market show few signs of stress Kyle Bass is convinced Hong Kong is headed for a financial crisis, and he’s warning investors every chance he gets. Few seem to be listening. The Dallas-based hedge fund manager, who made a fortune betting against subprime mortgages more than a decade ago, issued his latest dire Hong Kong forecast on Wednesday, saying in a Bloomberg TV interview that the city would suffer a “full-fledged banking crisis” in 2020. Citing a “collapse” in the local economy and high levels of financial leverage, he compared Hong Kong to Iceland and Ireland before those nations’ banking systems imploded during the global financial crisis. While few doubt that Hong Kong’s economy is suffering after seven months of anti-government protests, the city’s markets have shown little sign of an impending banking calamity. Advertisement Scroll to continue with content A gauge of the city’s financial stocks is trading near an all-time high after outpacing gains in the broader market this year and posting an advance of nearly 1% on Thursday. While interbank borrowing rates have increased over the past 12 months, they remain far below levels that preceded previous crises. The Hong Kong dollar, which Bass is betting against, has recently strengthened toward the strong end of its trading band against the U.S. currency. Howard Lee, a deputy chief executive at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, wrote in a blog late last month that the city’s financial markets are stable, supported by a “well-tested” currency peg and “robust” banking sector. The de facto central bank has not seen any significant fund outflows since the protests began, he said. Hong Kong dollar deposits were little changed at HK$6.9 trillion ($888 billion ) in November from a month earlier, according to official data. Read more: Why Hong Kong Is Still Protesting and Where It May Go “Yes we are in a recession, but living in Hong Kong you can see that property prices, the stock market, they’re still doing relatively well,” said Kenny Wen, a strategist at Everbright Sun Hung Kai Co. in Hong Kong. “I really don’t think we’ll see a banking crisis in the near future.” Hong Kong on Verge of 'Full-Fledged Banking Crisis,' Hayman's Bass Says Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and chief investment officer, says Hong Kong is poised to experience a “full-fledged banking crisis” this year. He speaks during an interview with Bloomberg’s Vonnie Quinn and Guy Johnson on “Bloomberg Markets.” Of course, Bass’s predictions about subprime mortgages in 2007 ultimately proved prescient, even as many investors shrugged them off at the time. If Hong Kong’s economy continues to weaken and the city’s sky-high real estate prices tumble, banks could face a surge in soured loans. Another flareup in protest violence could easily snuff out recent gains in the local stock market. Advertisement Scroll to continue with content Read more: Hedge Fund Bets the Hong Kong Dollar’s ‘Tear’ Higher Can’t Last For now though, many observers say Hong Kong’s banking industry can weather the storm. Asset quality issues at small- and medium-sized Hong Kong businesses, among the most impacted by the city’s economic downturn, are unlikely to develop into a crisis, Citigroup Inc. analysts said in a report this month. This week’s phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China may help bolster investor sentiment toward Hong Kong -- a key gateway for trade and financial flows into Asia’s largest economy. The MSCI Hong Kong Index rose 0.5% at 10:29 a.m. local time, set for its highest close since July. “Unless we have a global financial crisis, I don’t think we’re in a very dangerous situation,” Wen said. — With assistance by Livia Yap, Alfred Liu, Ben Bartenstein, Sydney Maki, and Vonnie Quinn