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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raffica who wrote (2152)	1/24/1998 12:45:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3029

Raffica, First and foremost, watch to see that Japan moves to fold its insolvent banks into the stronger financial institutions to remove that problem and to recapitalize the bad banks. PM Hashimoto last week said that pension funds may be used to buy preferred stock in banks and in that fashion to "refloat" the system. That's a very good idea, and watch to see if Japan does that or some variant. Also watch to see if the PRC devalues the Yuan, its currency. that would be bad because it would hurt Hong Kong and force a similar problem there which in turn could hurt other Asian markets and cancel out any sustained rallies in Asia this year. In the USA, watch to see if the Zippergate fol-du-rol is resolved pretty quickly, one way or the other. How someone as damned intelligent as Bill Clinton can take such crazy chances- I don't know (If he did! Ms. Lewinsky may have just been making "beer talk" too!). It's like the Jackrabbits in my part of the country which will sit by the side of the road and can see your car coming for 1/4 mile, but then at the very last second as you approach, bolt right across the road just missing being womped by your speeding tires. Bill seems to have some of that same spirit in him. There will be no impeachment (at least if the Republicans are smart! Leave Pres. Clinton twisting in the wind for more 2 1/2 years and do not give Al Gore the chance to rehabilitate this Administration before the Year 2000 elections- Gov. George Bush Jr. of Texas may then be in the historic position of "zapping" the guys who zapped his Dad in the 1992 election. He is quite formidable with his strong popularity amongst moderates and Hispanic Voters- even the Vice Governor of Texas, who is Democratic endorsed Bush for reelection a week ago... ) - since these matters do not involve national security. But a long drawn out affair would undermine Pres. Clinton's ability to be tough on issues such as IMF funding, etc., and that uncertainty would weigh on the market short-term for a few months, but enough to bung up 1998's returns. I assume that today's spike up in interest rates is unsustainable. The low interest rates eventually will stimulate the economy. For sure keep a few dollars in Asian mutual funds, sinmce their currency devaluations will make them formidable competitors on the export front moving forward. In the USA, tech stock while volatile tend to be the leading indicator in the markets. Techs (except for a few big names) predicted the slowdown in Asia, and fell 40-60% in price in late 1997. Well those same stocks will signal the upturn too- and start moving up about 6 months before the data becomes truly evident to economists... Pick out a few tech stocks you like and watch their reaction to bad news. When they start moving sideays to up on bad news- that's the signal that the end of the downturn is near. I own INVX and have been watching its reaction to its statement that second quarter earnings will be flat with last year's performance- with interest. So far it apears that the statement really did not affect the price of the stock that much. That makes me conclude that we are definitely much closer to a bottom in tech stocks than to a top. Finally techically- remember when buying or selling that an up day is usually followed by another up day, and a down day is usually followed by another down day. That same corollation does not hold as well for three days in a row. But time your purchases to buy on the day after a down day, and sell on the day after an up day, stocks or options.... Sincerely, Doug F.