Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: N. Saliba who wrote (853)	1/24/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: Noblesse Oblige	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3247

Hi N. Saliba, You have noted... "2-to assume the annual growth more than 30% (30% is only min) and to derive 98 revenue from 18% of Q1. Last conference call Mr B said they are able to sustain Q3 revenue for the next 2 qtrs. Assume Q1 equals to 25 mill (sustained revenue) than 25 mill becomes 18% of total 98 revenue. 98 revenue will be 25/.18=138.9 mill..." You are right about what Mr. Buchanan said in his last conference call. Unfortunately, you have overlooked what he said in the most recent call. It is my understanding (which is shared by the Furman analyst, based on his recent estimate of first quarter earnings) that a large program, scheduled to begin in the first quarter, has been pushed off one reporting period. Accordingly, the first quarter will be short enough revenue as to throw it into the not sustaining category, though this issue is obviously transitional and of little importance to anyone that isn't "trading" TFS shares. For what it is worth, Cihra carries 1998 quarterly earnings estimates of $.12, $.24, $.35, and $.39, respectively. His numbers for 1999 are $.29, $ .36, $ .45, and $.50. Assuming he is reasonably close to being on the mark (and I think he is moderately low for 1998), this stock should be trading at a significantly appreciated price as soon as institutional investors believe that there is sufficient earnings visibility to make appropriate commitments. I stand by my earlier comments that the shares will be two to three times the current price within the next 12-18 months. Have a good evening.