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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (152321)1/5/2020 8:31:13 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218835
 
you are ahead in the news flow as whatever happened did so after I fell asleep on a lazy Sunday.

I see asia gold now trading at 1,574.

2020 certainly starting w/ a boom for the macro metal, that which summarises all-knowns and all-fears into a single tidy number.

between gold and oil there should be a playable move, and one that is well supported by some other factors.

there are a lot of players in the arena.



To: carranza2 who wrote (152321)1/7/2020 7:47:47 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218835
 
gold broke 1600

I had last night purchased GZPFY bloomberg.com (integrated energy co) and OGZPY bloomberg.com (gas marketing co), both seem cheap

had also collected COP bloomberg.com , and

sold much puts on GLD

the news flow is not looking constructive / positive / peaceful

am unsure that the miners can react to all this instantaneous zig /zag, or even if they should

just gold and energy get to play

have once again wagered on Boeing, shorting its February 21st Put strike 320 @ 9.61, and long its January 17th Put strike 300 @ 0.26. Realise there is a mismatch on expiration, but feel I should be able to tidy up or exit in the coming week.



To: carranza2 who wrote (152321)1/8/2020 7:11:02 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218835
 
This iteration of Iran-Iraq-war is too kabuki for me.

Shall likely trade out and away from shorted puts on GLD and remain long on lower strike puts on same GLD.

Perhaps something will happen over the next few hours, be they words or action, to change my take.

Dunno.

In the meantime the palladium pricing is jaw-dropping.



To: carranza2 who wrote (152321)1/8/2020 5:07:50 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218835
 
Re Message 32493368

Had not only closed out shorted puts on GLD, but also added to long puts on GLD and SLV

All of the war premium of the last few days ought to be given back, then all-eyes on the usual macro less the geopolitics, I think

Once gold back down to 1518 or thereabouts, then to decide whether going lower, perhaps

Oil gave back sum-of-all-fears

Interesting few days

Looking at it all as an armed reconnaissance exercise, the probe was done, and we know more than we did before

I do not believe “it’s all done, chapter closed” but back to the long game.



To: carranza2 who wrote (152321)1/9/2020 8:18:51 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218835
 
After much deliberation, dialogues etc etc, the script now in mind is ...
- GDEED - Shares ramp and corrects (20+%) Q1 2020 (gold / gold equities not spared)
- Interest rate rise 2020 (and if not GU)
- DUEED - USD strengthens to end-2020
- DDEEU - USD collapse 2021 onward
- GUDDEEU - Gold gold gold 2021 onward
- GUDDEEU - Mega ramp of Dow (60,000) to 2025
- GUEED - TeoTwawKi 2026
- GUEED - Darkest Interregnum 2032

QQQ, SPY, FXI, FXE, IGOV, TLT, GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ are the keep-it-simple pieces to play with.

Easy enough to track, tune, and re-calibrate. Easy to note way-points. Fun to watch. All must play, whether want to or not, anyway. With script or against script. Ready or not, game-on, 3, 2, ...

Oh, and, a complication, all timing +/- 3-5 months :0)

Details can kill. We will know if safe when we know it.