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Technology Stocks : Dupont Photomasks (DPMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Bloxom who wrote (75)1/25/1998 2:15:00 AM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 955
 
$250-350 mathematically plausible in 3-5 years.

I don't think so. At the current 36% gross margin, same number of shares O/S, current 33% tax rate, and a p/e of 20, I compute that sales would have to quadruple in 4 years (midpoint) for $300 to be achieved. Isn't that highly unlikely to put it mildly?



To: John Bloxom who wrote (75)1/25/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: kinkblot  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 955
 
John,

I have followed this stock since the IPO and agree that the current risk/reward is quite favorable. If DPMI is best positioned for migration to sub-.25 micron linewidths, revenues and earnings will eventually resume a long-term uptrend. In his earnings release comments, CEO Hardinger stated "The fundamentals of photomask demand are unchanged, as evidenced by the fact that our leading-edge business continues to grow at a brisk pace...''. Despite tough conditions, the company is implementing its strategy of positioning facilities in every key region of the world for semiconductor manufacturing. In the Asian region Taiwan is probably one of the best places to locate and UMC is an excellent partner. I don't have any quarrel with this stategy.

After the earnings release, DPMI stock dropped from 27.5 to 26.125 on volume of about 200K shares, but has subsequently moved sideways on high volume of about 1M shares (about 23% of float). The fact that it has been able to stabilize on such high turnover is at least an improvement over the previous trend. Partly on that basis, I made an initial purchase of shares on Friday.

Will



To: John Bloxom who wrote (75)1/26/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 955
 
<<positioned itself to be dominant supplier for .25 and below geometries>>

Why do you say that? I read the reports on PLAB and it looks like they are buying all the same fancy equipment.

Also based on latest quarter reports - PLAB sales up 31%, earnings 26%; DPMI sales up 5%, earnings down 13%. PLAB just bought Motorola photomask operations so presumably will show further jump in sales and earnings. (Why did MOT pick them over DPMI?) PLAB has less Asia exposure I believe. I am a numbers guy. It certainly looks like PLAB is doing a much better job. Anyone out there who really knows these companies who would care to comment?



To: John Bloxom who wrote (75)1/26/1998 3:43:00 PM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 955
 
John, do you know if rumored internal forecast of $250-350 was made when the stock was $70 or much more recently?