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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SteveG who wrote (3537)	1/24/1998 12:31:00 PM
From: Steven Bowen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12468

Anybody, thoughts on whether or not WinStar would be allowed to buy ARTT? You'd have to believe WinStar is thinking about it. I'd think ARTT shareholders would love to trade their stock for WinStar stock at this time, with WinStar set to explode in the short term. Does anybody follow ARTT much? Do they have much in way of facilities or are they pretty much just selling their airwaves? I'm wondering if WinStar won't be strong for the next month just based on the LMDS auction and the value that will be derived for WinStar's licenses. My thoughts so far: - We can count one LMDS license as approx equivalent to 13 WinStar channels (based on Bernards calculations). - We can estimate WinStar's license value then as their number of channels divided by 13 times the LMDS value. For example, if NY goes for $250M has the research firm estimated, WinStar's value in NY will be $250M x 7/13 = $135M. Since WinStar has licenses average probably 500-600MHz in each of the top 50 markets, you don't have to push it very hard to see how huge WinStar's number's could add up to be. For example, if you assume that the top 50 markets will go on average for one half of what I just estimated for NY, the top 50 markets licenses alone would be worth over $3.3 billion, or over $100 per share. And that's given away the next 100 markets for free. And that's not giving the company and it's facilities any value at all. As the LMDS auction gets nearer, I'd have to think WallStreet will start running numbers similiar to these. If anybody has any thoughts, talk to me. If there's a better of of doing this, let's figure it out. Bernard, if you read this, I'd appreciate your thoughts. Ed, thanks for the list. I had WinStar fax me their list and got exactly the same as you gave me. Have you been thinking at all of how to value these license based on the LMDS auction? Steve