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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Horgad who wrote (152560)	1/17/2020 6:13:19 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217786

Folks can rant n scream about bubbles Especially if the object is not absolutely necessary (fad-esque) Unclear that palladium is a bubble. Fad it is not. Simple story, really. Want car, buy palladium. Perhaps more than a decade ago my father-in-law unusually asked me to accompany him to a business breakfast w/ one of his suppliers, an immersion (survival) suit maker. The suits cost several hundred dollars to make, enables folks to survive for whatever rated hours in the ocean. At the time all ocean going ships needed one suit, and regulation globally was going to change requirement to one suit per crew. The owner of the suit-maker engaged w/ my in-law as exclusive distributor in greater-China after the breakfast. Came time to sell the suits, my in-law’s competitors representing other manufacturers ended up turning over their sales contract over to my in-law. It turned out, giggle, the Jewish owner of the Florida manufacturer had bought much of one year’s supply of monopoly Japanese zipper maker’s survival-zipper output. The zippers cost I believe ~US$ 15, were specially rated for survival suits. Palladium is a zipper. Been playing the PGM thing via SBGL. May need to get on the train that is PALL. Shorting it as I earlier did against PPLT is a non-starter. I see that now.

To: Horgad who wrote (152560)	1/20/2020 6:48:50 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217786

Re <<35%>> Below highlighted guidance seems sound advice for traders, akin to Nike's "Just Do It" with a swish. At some juncture need to reverse the trade, but seems some distance away. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012020-palladium-cant-go-up-forever-but-fundamentals-bullish-noah Palladium 'can't go up forever', but fundamentals bullish: Noah London — Palladium, which has been powering higher for the past few years, "can't go up forever" was the view of Noah Capital Markets Monday, although tightness isn't going away anytime soon. In a research note Noah analyst Rene Hochreiter said "a trader's correction" was possible in the near term, but that fundamentally the metal remained attractive based on physical tightness and continued buying interest because of stringent emissions standards. Over the past three-months palladium has risen around 42%, spot bid at around 1640 GMT trading at around $2,501/oz. "Every time someone has asked for my advice on when to buy it, I've told them just buy it. Even if you're buying it at a fresh high, another record is just around the corner. I said this at $900, $1,500. I'll say it again," a very bullish physical trader said. Palladium is a key ingredient in gasoline engine autocatalysts, which lower emissions. Demand for the metal has increased in recent years, due to tight physical supply and higher demand for gasoline engines. The main driver for this was the 2015 "Dieselgate" scandal, which rocked the auto industry and caused demand for diesel engines to fall sharply in Europe. Hochreiter said that a correction could offer a buying opportunity. "The second half of January tends to see softer prices across the board, so be aware that there could be a buying opportunity coming up soon," he said. As the palladium price continues to drive forward, there has been continued speculation of substitution between platinum and palladium. Still, for the time being there is no evidence of that happening. "It can take between two-three years to switch out of palladium and into platinum," the trader said. However, broker SP Angel said: "At some point, the current price mismatch between two metals should cause manufacturers to reform their autocatalysts to include less palladium and more platinum." One of the world's largest platinum producers, Anglo American Platinum, remains bullish on the outlook for palladium demand. "Demand for this metal in 2019 remained firm, despite unexciting global light-duty vehicle sales, as tightening vehicle emissions rules led to automotive manufacturers using, on average, more palladium per vehicle than in previous years," Anglo American Platinum spokesperson Jana Marais said Hochreiter added that "supply response will be needed over the next 12 years; we don't think this will be fast enough to satisfy demand and therefore see prices stronger for longer." Head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, Bart Melek, was also bullish palladium. "We reiterate that palladium's particularly strong fundamentals suggest that it can continue to trade far beyond cost-dynamics, and given that speculative length remains a minor risk, [the price could spike higher]," Melek said.