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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (1442)	1/25/1998 12:41:00 PM
From: TATRADER	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Michael, the S & P 500 is in a rectangle pattern from 975 on the upside to 900 on the downside...When playing a pattern it is always best to play the extremities...These are the safest entry points...Also ones that raise your blood pressure...A smart short on the S& P would be shorting near 975 with a buy stop set at 1023...In other words, limit your loss to 5% or less on the trade...However, if you were a believer in a bear like me, not only would you reap the 75 points, but on the breakdown from the neckline at 900, I peg another 50 points...Once the S & P breaks, my first cover point would be 850... I am employing a different trading strategy than hit and run shorting as I would usually play the market...Reason is, if 900 is broken, the movement down could be very quick, thus making it very difficult to short...Remember you need an uptick to enter a position...Likewise,if we go straight down 200 points in the Dow, it makes it a bit difficult to short, plus there may be internet overload, or a busy signal from your broker....I don't want that to happen to me...I have put in GTC orders on my 15 short positions at absolutely the lowest level I see them going...That way I won't be hearing a busy signal, or be frozen on the internet....It also takes my emotions away, which have caused me trouble in the past... Another card has been put out for the bear with potential Clinton impeachment...All those Asian people need to hear is that we do not have our house in order, and they may be safer just to sell any stock positions whatsoever....Gold might finally be the beneficiary...Or the Japanese may just cash in some bond chips...I think Zeev is looking at a 6% bond, as another warning sign of the bear... We are at a critical juncture....I have the Dow pegged in a rectangle pattern from 7600-8200...If we break 7600 and close below that level for two days straight, it will be a fast move down to 7000, my first target...That might make some people nervous, and it could easily feed on itself...The 200 day sits at 7690...The Dow closed just above this level on Friday....Regards, Mark