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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (4569)	1/24/1998 5:59:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

RE: There are no statistics that show excess capacity for producing leading edge products. Excess capacity tends to be older stuff or practically obsolete stuff. Kurlak said there was massive overcapacity when he downgraded the entire group. I agree with you. I think this is a case of all players being tarred with the same brush. DRAM as a group is clearly in an overacapacity situation. No thanks to the Koreans' overbuilding. But even if leading-edge capacity is not in extremely short supply it is much closer to balance. LSI CEO indicated that he thinks by mid-year there will be a shortage of leading edge capacity (0.25/0.35) (presumably for high end logic chips - LSI's business). To further support this, here's a quote from sbn: "Current conditions could be setting up a shortage of leading-edge capacity in 1999, which could lead to severe shortages and a repeat of the market conditions of the early 1990s." Not even sure for groups such as MPUs and Analog whether there has been any overcapacity to speak of.