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To: John Chalker who wrote (4575)1/24/1998 6:34:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
John,

I believe this myself and have wondered why there are no pundits seriously discussing this possibility.

There is plenty of room to lower rates in this environment. Any insight on what Greenspan is waiting for? He doesn't seem to think inflation would occur. Is he concerned about stock prices being too high?



To: John Chalker who wrote (4575)1/24/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
John, I think that you are wrong in assuming thatthe US can pull out Asia out of economic turpor without Japan opening its markets up and stimulating its local economy. It will take too long for the development of additional marketing channels for other Asian products in the US, but these trade relationships exists between the rim and Japan and thus a Japanese rescue of the rim (via an internal fiscal stimulus) is much more likely and necessary.

I also think that the recent troubles in the rim have thrown a little monkey wrench in the US slow struggle to get it trade balance a little more in order, so AG will not be able to drastically reduce interest rates. While my turnips are forseeing AG to ease no latter than JUne, I do not think that there will be more than 2 steps of .25% or so and the long term bond will not go much below 5.5%, IMHO.

Zeev