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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Horgad who wrote (152673)	1/22/2020 4:37:43 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

Palladium has been much fun over the past 48 hours Like the energy and momentum Cognizant of the chart pattern that says, “bubble” But, am dubious that we are heading for a fall because of the “perfect storm” happening in Pd space In the meantime, on the general situation

To: Horgad who wrote (152673)	1/22/2020 6:41:04 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217545

Take into consideration and I hope to mark the timing correctly Re <<“Platinum group metals [which include palladium] now represent a whopping 15 per cent of global automakers’ cash flow, up from 7 per cent a year ago and 4 per cent three years ago,” ... By some accounts 25 per cent?[of the palladium] .?.?.?can be substituted for platinum in gasoline vehicles in 18 to 24 months and this may already be in the pipeline,>> have no reason to not believe. if true, switch must happen, and switch-actions already in pipeline; and at some juncture, Pd down / Pt up. Should be easy enough. Revisit the question 6-12 months from now :0) https://www.ft.com/content/1634d184-3cfa-11ea-b232-000f4477fbca Palladium bull market puts $18bn dent in carmakers’ profits Demand for ingredient of catalytic converters soars as supplies fail to keep pace yesterday The bull market in palladium caused by a chronic shortage of supplies has cost the global automotive industry $18bn over the past year, according to a new report by US bank Citi. The price of the silvery white metal has surged more than 80 per cent over the past year as industrial consumers have scrambled to meet demand for the critical ingredient in catalytic converters for petrol and hybrid cars. Analysts at Citi believe that barnstorming run — palladium hit a record high above $2,500 an ounce last week — squeezed cash flows, costing the car industry $18bn in 2019. “Platinum group metals [which include palladium] now represent a whopping 15 per cent of global automakers’ cash flow, up from 7 per cent a year ago and 4 per cent three years ago,” said Citi analyst Max Layton in a report, noting that his calculations assumed that buyers had not hedged the cost of their purchases. Mr Layton added that the figures would be even higher for automakers with heavy exposure to gasoline vehicle sales, which have greater weightings of palladium and rhodium in their converters. One of the big factors behind the surge in price has been demand from China, where carmakers have to meet more stringent standards on air pollution. This has led to an increase in the amount of palladium that goes into catalytic converters. The converters built using palladium convert toxic emissions such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide to carbon dioxide, water and nitrogen. At the same time, supply has failed to keep up with demand and inventories have been whittled down. This is because palladium is produced alongside platinum or nickel — commodities where new projects have been few and far between. However, analysts note that the rally may fade if carmakers start to substitute palladium for cheaper platinum. “By some accounts 25 per cent?[of the palladium] .?.?.?can be substituted for platinum in gasoline vehicles in 18 to 24 months and this may already be in the pipeline,” said Mr Layton, who is not convinced the rewards of staying bullish on palladium at current prices outweigh the risks. “In this case, this could gradually affect the market from 2021 and would likely substantially affect the market from 2022.” Still, carmakers, which are ploughing billions of dollars into electric vehicles, may be disinclined to switch. Citi believes that the bigger threat to the market is renewed sales from Russian stockpiles, as the country’s leading palladium producer Norilsk floods the market in an effort to prevent that substitution. Norilsk’s Global Palladium Fund, established in 2016, supplied 1m ounces of palladium in 2017 and 2018 respectively, according to Scotiabank, helping to keep a lid on prices. However, palladium’s recent surge — it is up more than 25 per cent this year — suggests the metal is very scarce or demand has ramped up abnormally, said Nicky Shiels, a commodity strategist at Scotiabank in New York. The rising price of palladium has also led to some unexpected consequences. Police in London have warned car owners of the risk of thefts of catalytic converters while Toyota, maker of the Prius hybrid car, has advised UK drivers to buy a “Catloc” device, which is fitted around the converter to stop it being cut out. Other more obvious effects include the rising share prices of producers such as Norilsk, Anglo American and Sibanye Gold. The stock price of the latter, listed in Johannesburg, has more than doubled since September. Analysts believe Anglo American’s platinum business, which has its own listing in South Africa, could pay a special dividend this year.

To: Horgad who wrote (152673)	1/23/2020 7:48:09 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

re <<Price discovery is broken>> the more obscure the market the better speaking of which ... bloomberg.com Obscure Chinese Company Buys Vast Stock of Metals U.S. Labels ‘Critical’ to Industry Mark Burton Indium is found in flat-screen TVs and cellphones the world over. Photographer: Vitaly Nevar/Getty Images A little-known Chinese company has bought up a vast stockpile of metals that are indispensable to the electronics industry, including enough indium to satisfy six years of global demand of the material found in flat-screen TVs and cellphones the world over. Vital Materials Co.’s $600 million swoop to acquire the stockpile in a government auction is the culmination of a wild tale of speculation and market manipulation in a small, but strategically important corner of the metals markets. Almost everything bought by Vital Materials is on the list of minerals classified as “critical” by the U.S. two years ago as part of President Donald Trump’s vow to reduce America’s foreign dependence. While many of the metals are found in small quantities at mines around the world, China has come to dominate in transforming them into high-purity products needed in advanced manufacturing. Outside of the metals markets, indium’s importance largely escaped attention until the early 2010s, when thousands of investors in China caught on to its significance and bought huge volumes on a trading platform, called the Fanya Metal Exchange. Infinite Indium The Fanya stockpile is more than ten times larger than annual output in top producer China Source: Vital Materials, USGS The back story of Fanya dates back to 2011, when the exchange was launched with a promise of fixed high-yield income. The investment was backed by inventories of strategic metals like indium, gallium and germanium, which help power high-tech products from night-vision goggles to computer chips. But when the bourse collapsed amid suspicions of fraud in 2015, investors were left facing multibillion-dollar losses, according to media reports. Authorities impounded the colossal volumes of indium and other so-called minor metals that had accumulated on the bourse. The result was a years-long pall over the small industry as traders questioned whether the stockpiles would eventually flood back into the market. Now, with indium prices languishing at the lowest in more than a decade, China’s Vital Materials has paid more than $600 million to acquire the stockpile at auction. The deal removes the surplus of inventory from the market and helps draw a line under one of the biggest scandals to hit China’s metals industry. “The fear that the Fanya stocks might flood into the market and destroy the already very delicate balance of supply and demand has been overhanging onto the market,” Vicky Zeng, Vital’s global vice president for sourcing, said in a statement. “With all these metals being moved to Vital, people can be relieved as all the metals will be consumed and leveraged internally.” The move cements Vital’s position as a powerful force in niche markets as China and the U.S. focus on securing raw materials that are critical to their technological and military primacy. While it’s little known outside China, the company employs more than 4,000 people across eight sites in the country and several overseas plants. It’s capable of using up the entire stockpile internally over time and is likely to complete further acquisitions soon that will further underpin its growth, Zeng said by phone. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

To: Horgad who wrote (152673)	1/23/2020 8:10:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By dvdw© Respond to of 217545

Hmmmnnnn Revenge-of-paper should follow shortly, and if so, counter-revenge might just break the fraud <<This week physical palladium in London surged to a premium of over $200 to the price of futures expiring in March — the widest spread in at least 20 years, according to Refinitiv data.>> Closing the paper market would ... give material for the spinning fan to splatter ft.com Palladium trade body warns of supply pinch in London Industry group says market is tighter now than it has been for more than 20 years 7 hours ago The body charged with overseeing London’s palladium market has issued a stern warning to its members to ensure trading still functions as it should, as fears grow over a chronic shortage of the metal used in catalytic converters. The price of palladium has surged by 80 per cent over the past year to surpass the price of gold, making it one of the most valuable precious metals on earth, worth about $2,400 an ounce. The rally has been driven by growing demand from carmakers, who have to use more palladium-rich catalysts to meet tighter standards on harmful emissions in Europe and China. This week physical palladium in London surged to a premium of over $200 to the price of futures expiring in March — the widest spread in at least 20 years, according to Refinitiv data. John Metcalf, chairman of the London Platinum and Palladium Market, whose members include banks such as HSBC and JPMorgan, said that “extremely turbulent trading conditions” threatened liquidity in the London market, according to a letter seen by the Financial Times. In the letter, Mr Metcalf, who works for the German chemical giant BASF, said there is likely to be a “prolonged” shortage of palladium metal in London, adding that the situation appeared worse than when Russian exports were restricted in the late 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mr Metcalf urged members to bear this in mind when pricing physical metal “for the sake of the London market’s reputation and continued functioning.” Palladium is traded in London by banks and buyers in an over-the-counter market, meaning trading is conducted directly between two parties. Mr Metcalf said similar conditions prevailed between 1997 and 2000, when delays in exports from Russia led to shortages. But these were eventually resolved by a resumption of shipments from the country, he said. “Although there is no way of obtaining definitive numbers, the level of stocks available to the market today is likely far lower as supply/demand analysis has shown significant fundamental deficits?.?.?.?for a number of years,” he said, in the letter. “With that in mind and the fact that today there is no such delay in Russian exports, it is unclear whether there can be a swift solution to resolve the current tightness we are witnessing and indeed it seems possible it may be prolonged.” In a sign of the growing shortage, the cost of borrowing palladium for one month from banks in London has surged to an annual rate of over 30 per cent, more than five times the levels of 2018. That has amplified concerns over the proper functioning of the market. Banks in London often use palladium futures to offset their price exposures, using so-called “exchange-for-physical” contracts. The CME Group, which owns the Nymex metals exchange, said there was a total of 996 such trades in palladium on Tuesday. That is equivalent to more than three times the amount of physical metal stored in registered warehouses. Tai Wong, head of metals trading at BMO Capital Markets in New York, said he had “never seen a rupture” like current prices in his 15 years of trading. “It’s not a normal market and will not act like a normal market for some time,” he said.

To: Horgad who wrote (152673)	1/28/2020 4:59:06 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

After several days temporary trade-out of Pd metal am now back on the Pd bull (SBGL position was left undisturbed together w/ its attendant call/put combo’s) The general market seems want to continue melt-up, along w/ crypto this and anything that Gold and silver feel hesitant, but no-matter at the very moment The kibitzers are out, sounding bit frustrated, thinking team china can be kneed by what seems like middling flu ... investing.com Is The Party Over For Palladium? Its Cheerleaders Might Not Agree Based on logic, palladium prices should have continued crashing with stocks, oil and other assets carrying risk related to China and its debilitating coronavirus. Yet, from what we know — or, at least, have seen — markets aren’t always logical. Palladium, the world’s number one catalyst and emissions purifier for petrol- or gasoline-driven cars, was back in rally mode in Asian trading Tuesday, snapping a four-day red streak that had wiped nearly 9% off its prices. The silvery-white metal was up about 1% on the day — relatively modest for a commodity used to setting one stupendous record high after another, as investors stayed in perpetual fear of its tight supply, amid worries that the world might one day run out of palladium. Palladium Futures Weekly Prices Whatever the case, Tuesday’s rebound in the precious metal seemed outrageous, when stocks in South Korea had crashed more than 3% amid broad declines in Asian equities and Wall Street’s biggest rout since October had occurred just a day earlier. What’s Next For Palladium?“Is there any stopping it from reaching another high?” Arkadiusz Sieron, an independent investment adviser, wrote on the Kitco precious metals site, referring to palladium. “What’s next in store for the white metal?” While the year isn’t even four weeks old, palladium has gained four times more than gold, its best rival in precious metals. Ahead of Friday’s month-end, spot palladium is up 20% for January, while palladium futures show a 16% gain. In 2019, the spot market rose 48% and the futures finished up 55%, trouncing all major commodities. Spot Palladium Weekly Prices Analysts at Bank of America Securities predicted on Monday that palladium will reach $3,500 an ounce before it runs out of steam. That’s an 85% premium over last year’s close and 50% or more above current prices — though still lagging the metal’s astronomical rally of 1,500% since 2009.Valid History Behind RallyLike most analysts, I can understand the upside price pressure that has brought palladium this far. We can all see the chronic squeeze on the metal’s supply in top producing centers South Africa and Russia and that there are very few practical alternatives for the automobile industry to this metal. While there have been suggestions that the cheaper platinum, which serves as catalytic converter and emissions purifier for diesel cars, can be a substitute for palladium, the cost of retooling auto factories for the change might just outweigh any cost benefits. But It’s A Different Reality NowTo me, a palladium rally in the present circumstances will just seem surreal. And my argument has to do with fundamentals too. Just like the supply squeeze that produced one record high after another for palladium, there should now be a demand vacuum for the metal as the Chinese car industry — the world’s largest— is going to be in the slow lane, thanks to the coronavirus. China typically accounts for nearly 30% of world vehicle production, exceeding the European Union’s production or even the combined output of Japan and the United States. Right now though, automakers are withdrawing employees from China and weighing whether to suspend manufacturing in the country as the coronavirus ravages industries across the board. Automakers Taking A Break In ChinaHonda Motor (NYSE: HMC) and PSA Group (PA: PEUP), (OTC: PUGOY) are among the big auto names withdrawing employees working around Wuhan, the city of 11 million people that has become the epicenter of the viral outbreak, CNBC reported on Monday. Manufacturing in China was temporarily halted in honor of the Lunar New Year, which kicked off this weekend, and normal operations are due to resume this week. But automakers across the globe with operations in China could keep their plants closed even longer, people familiar with the matter told CNBC. As I said earlier, some logic should prevail now over palladium’s cheerleaders. Where Is The Demand For Palladium?China, the world’s largest carmaker, is in contraction and that logically means demand for palladium should at least be easing, if not shrinking, alleviating the months-long squeeze placed on the market. The shutdowns in China may not have made enough material impact for automakers to roll back on their demand for raw materials. Yet that could very logically follow. Some will argue that the negative impact on palladium is more perceived than real, and that those bullish on the metal should stay the course, taking it to new highs. Yet if psychological fears related to Chinese oil demand can drive crude prices down 10% in a week, can’t a potential slowdown by the largest car producing country on the globe even stall the palladium rally? Fundamentally, palladium should give back a chunk of its recent gains built on the notion of ever-increasing demand from automakers. If not, it should at least stop making crazy new highs in the interim.