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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (15153)	1/24/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68226

Hi Judy, The price support of NN has consistently held up well at this this level for the most part. I was looking for a temporary break down to the next support level of 38 CND for a entry for a buy of a 1/3 position. With the downgrade on Thursday it looked like I was going to get it. The announcement late Friday reversed most of the negative sentiment though in the final part of the trading session. I agree, the close looked like it was mostly block buying. My broker reported that the block money flow went flat late last week, so the institution had stopped selling. The lack of volatility the past 1.5 weeks indicates most people were looking for some indication of the end of Q results. The Q closes on Jan 31 I believe. My opinion of the company's long term fundamentals have not changed on the ATM side. As far as I can tell ATM demand on the WAN remains strong. ASND experienced 75% growth this Q on their ATM products. Since most of the sales of ATM WAN products are to telcos only a few companies really qualify as true competitiors (NT,ASND, and NN). Since the telcos require maximum realiability and are slow to change they tend to go with proven technology and only these 3 companies have a track record. CSCO is really only a factor on the enterprise WAN market. LU reported good demand from the telcos for complete systems. NN's and ASND's frame relay product lines continue to see decreasing margins and sales. This is a very mature technology and will be a declining part of sales for NN in the future though it will still be a significant part of sales for the next few years. On the enterprise network side, I think they are in trouble. It is not just the UB acquisition that is their problem. Shared media hub sales continue to decline as it is for everyone in the business. They have a bad product transition for their VIVID product line last Q. Their new products were late resulting in declining sales for the division and they still lack brand name recogntion in the enterprise space. An alliance with COMS should give them access to a better sales force for their products in this space. The former UB division lost at least over 10 million dollars last Q excluding restructuring charges according to the last conference call. NN has had 2 flat or declining income Q's. This is a critical Q for them. If they miss their number many of the instituitons may start to re-evaluate their positions. I think the demand for ATM for the WAN remains strong though. If they do get rid of their UB investment, it should buy them 1 or 2 Q's to show that they are on track if they still are showing explosive WAN ATM growth which they should. If the announcement on Monday is an alliance with COMS, to get rid of the old UB division this should get this stock moving again as ASND has shown good ATM sales and NN would have gotten rid of a big money lossing venture. Did you listen to the LU conference call? How credible is the LU management? I thought some of their growth projection especially on the PCS side of their business were a little aggressive given the guidance of the NT and ANDW conference calls. Harry

To: Judy who wrote (15153)	1/24/1998 9:52:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68226

Judy, One other point, they should begin to ship and recognize some of the revenues from some of the large contracts they have won over the last few months this quarter. Since they only get paid when the equipment is installed and the customer is totally satisfied it is hard to predict how much revenue they get to recognize. This could be a chance to get some shares lower still. I am using a average in strategy. Monday should be interesting. I believe there is a series of analyst technology conferences coming up soon. Do you have a list? Oh, it looks like you made the 50 most bookmarked people list on S.I. according to a post on the NASDAQ GEMS thread. Tom Trader did too. I think that would make me nervous ! I am off to the ballet tonight so have a good weekend. Amazing there is a life outside of S.I. : ) Harry